Is it important to focus on Access Road Construction for mega Complex remote project? 4 Figures Depict a Complete Story!

Share This Post

Share on facebook
Share on linkedin
Share on twitter
Share on email

Keywords

Access road construction, Mega complex project, Construction project, Schedule delay, Cost overrun, Sensitivity analysis, Uncertainty, Risks, Weather, Flash flood, Energy, Oil & Gas, Mining, Monte Carlo simulation, What if analysis, Distribution graph, Cost risk analysis, Risk drivers, Schedule risk analysis, Integrated risk analysis

Summary

Energy and mining projects are complex and mostly being executed in remote areas. Site accessibility, weather, uneven terrain, and mobility are the factors that make it more difficult to execute remote area projects. After asset acquisition and getting all necessary permits, the construction of an access road to actual site area is a topmost priority.

Flash flood is unpredictable and can be showstopper in hilly terrain. Analyzing the impact of flash flood, using Monte Carlo simulation, helps to examine the various scenarios and plan mitigation actions to minimize the risk.

Case Study

The construction of access roads is an extremely important that needs to be done at the right time. Any delay in construction can delay the site access and mobilization of team and equipment for field development, and It also needs to be done with the best equipment and materials available, keeping in mind the specific needs of the client.

Flash Floods are unpredictable. Mostly, water follows its path, but it changes its direction depending upon the water quantity and pressure, etc.

Project Schedule

Level I project schedule is shown in fig. 1:

Level I Schedule developed by Gleeym for schedule and cost risk analysis
Fig. 1- Level 1 Schedule

Uncertainty and Risk

There can be a long list of  risks but considered only three (3) top risks.

  1. Flash Flood – Recurring flash flood from May to Sep to hamper Access Road Construction and Plant site.
  2. Delay in delivery of Bulk Material to site
  3. Unavailability of Skilled Labor

Risks were mapped to the activities along with the uncertainties.

Monte Carlo Simulation

After schedule check, mapping uncertainties and risks to schedule activities ran the Monte Carlo Simulation. The “Distribution Graph” is showing the results for a schedule in fig. 2:

Fig. 2 - Distribution Graph (S Curve) for a Schedule

With uncertainties and risks, the chances of meeting target date are almost 0%. The distribution graph shows that there will be a 50% (mean) chance that the project will be completed on 22-10-2021 i.e., 57 days.

What about the time-phased cost? The “Distribution Graph” is showing the results for a cost in fig. 3:

Time phase distribution graph for cost by Gleeym
Fig.3 - Distribution Graph (S Curve) for a Cost

With uncertainties and risks, the chances of meeting target estimated costs are almost 3%. The distribution graph shows that there will be 50% (mean) chance that extra cost will be $ 1,445,705. Furthermore, there will be an 80% chance that total project cost will be around $11.72 M.

Probability Cash Flow performed by Gleeym
Fig. 4 - Probabilistic Cash Flow (PCF)

What if to visualize the impact of Flash flood to schedule only? The “Distribution Graph” is showing the impact of Flash flood to a schedule in fig. 5.

Analyzing impact of single risk to a schedule. What if analysis
Fig. 5 - What if Analysis with Flash Flood Risk Only

With only Flash flood risk, the chances of meeting target date are almost 0%. The distribution graph shows that there will be 50% (mean) chance that schedule overrun will be 29 days. Furthermore, there will be an 80% chance that project completion date will be 29-10-2021 i.e., 34 days.

 While access roads can be constructed by any means necessary, it is much more cost-effective to use specialized contractors trained in their construction. Each contractor has specific standards that must be met before they begin any work.

Services Offered by GleeYM

Conclusion

Access roads are crucial for any oil and gas project, not just for safety but also to allow construction equipment to enter the site, move materials, and complete the project. 

This is a story of a project that will be started out with a big dream and ended with great success. Nothing is easy; everything is challenging, but the results will be rewarding.

Question

Question: What if to build a bridge to over come the impact of a Flash Flood?

 

Answer: I will discuss it in the next article.

 

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Ut elit tellus, luctus nec ullamcorper mattis, pulvinar dapibus leo.

More To Explore

3 Responses

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *