Decision Making – GleeYM https://www.gleeym.com GleeYM offers complete risk management , PMO, Mind Mapping, Training and Digital Transformation Servces! Tue, 14 Jan 2025 04:07:11 +0000 en-CA hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.4 https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/cropped-gleelogo-1-1-32x32.png Decision Making – GleeYM https://www.gleeym.com 32 32 166212591 5 Data-Driven Insights to Slash Churn and Boost Growth for Your E-Commerce Startup https://www.gleeym.com/2024/12/14/churnrate-ecommerce-startup/ https://www.gleeym.com/2024/12/14/churnrate-ecommerce-startup/#respond Sat, 14 Dec 2024 05:59:56 +0000 https://www.gleeym.com/?p=7268

In the world of e-commerce startups, customer acquisition is a critical milestone, but retaining those customers is what drives long-term growth and profitability. Many startups find themselves caught in the churn trap—acquiring customers only to lose them at a rapid rate. Understanding and mitigating customer churn is not just a survival strategy; it’s a growth accelerator.

Using Monte Carlo Simulation, one startup uncovered powerful insights about how to balance customer acquisition and retention over a 5-year period. The result? A data-driven blueprint to slash churn rates, boost growth by 60% annually, and scale up to 7,596 customers by Year 5.

Here are the 5 key insights from their journey.

Insight 1: Understand the True Impact of Churn

Churn—when customers leave your platform—directly affects your bottom line. For startups, even a small churn rate can have a compounding effect over time.

In this simulation, churn was modeled with:

  • Monthly churn rate: 5% for new customers.
  • Year-end churn rate: 20%, assuming retention improves as the customer base stabilizes.

Key Finding:

  • By Year 5, churn could account for 413 to 901 lost customers annually, as shown in the Pareto Plot for Year 5 Churned Customers. This range highlights the importance of proactive retention strategies to minimize attrition.

Takeaway:

The startup realized that lowering churn by just 5% could add hundreds of customers to their base annually, making churn reduction a top priority.

Churn Rate - gleeym

Insight 2: Leverage Data for Predictive Growth

The startup set ambitious targets:

  • 200 customers by Month 3.
  • 1,000 customers by Year-End.
  • Exponential growth to 7,596 customers by Year 5.

To meet these goals, they used Monte Carlo Simulation to model customer acquisition and churn under different scenarios. The simulation projected:

  • Median churn rate: 15% by Year 5.
  • Median customer base: 7,596, assuming steady growth and controlled churn.

Visualization:

The Trend Plot for Year-End Customers revealed the exponential growth trajectory, with a potential range of 6,000 to 10,000 customers by 2028.

Takeaway:

Modeling customer behavior allowed the startup to predict best- and worst-case scenarios, empowering them to plan for growth confidently.

Trend Chart by gleeyM

Insight 3: Churn Increases as Your Business Grows

While growth is exciting, it brings challenges:

  • As the customer base increases, the number of churned customers grows proportionally.
  • Churn rates rose from 2.67% in Year 1 to 15.18% by Year 5, even as retention efforts improved.

Key Metrics:

Year

Start Customers

Churned Customers

Churn Rate (%)

2024

0

85

2.67%

2025

3,089

363

9.17%

2026

3,927

461

11.74%

2027

5,119

601

13.51%

2028

6,612

776

15.18%

Takeaway:

Growth without retention strategies leads to customer leakage. The startup focused on loyalty programs and personalized campaigns to curb churn as the customer base expanded.

Insight 4: Retention Pays Bigger Dividends than Acquisition

Acquiring new customers is costly—retaining them is far more cost-effective. By modeling retention rates at 80% annually, the startup ensured steady growth even as churn rates climbed.

Retention Strategies:

  1. Engagement Campaigns: Tailored email and SMS reminders to keep customers active.
  2. Loyalty Programs: Rewarded repeat customers with discounts and exclusive offers.
  3. Proactive Support: Solved customer issues before they escalated into churn.

Takeaway:

Retention efforts compounded over time, significantly improving customer lifetime value (CLV) and reducing overall churn.

Insight 5: Plan for Uncertainty with Monte Carlo Simulation

Startups operate in a world of uncertainty. Will your marketing campaigns perform as expected? Will your churn rate stay within manageable limits? Monte Carlo Simulation helped this startup navigate these uncertainties.

Pareto Plot for Year 5 Churn:

  • Best Case: 413 churned customers (5th percentile).
  • Worst Case: 901 churned customers (95th percentile).

Trend Plot for Year-End Customers:

  • Median projection: 7,596 customers by 2028.
  • Variability increases over time, emphasizing the need for dynamic planning.

Takeaway:

By running simulations, the startup could account for variability and build contingency plans for both conservative and optimistic scenarios.

Pareto Chart for Year-5

5-Step Strategy to Slash Churn and Boost Growth

  1. Understand Customer Behavior:
    • Use tools like Monte Carlo Simulation to model churn and growth.
  2. Engage Customers Proactively:
    • Create personalized campaigns to keep customers engaged.
  3. Improve Retention Metrics:
    • Track Net Promoter Score (NPS) and Customer Lifetime Value (CLV).
  4. Optimize Onboarding:
    • Ensure customers see value immediately upon joining.
  5. Invest in Scenario Planning:
    • Prepare for uncertainties by modeling best- and worst-case outcomes.

Conclusion: Data Is the Path to Growth

For e-commerce startups, balancing customer acquisition with retention is the key to unlocking exponential growth. By analyzing churn rates and running simulations, this startup moved beyond guesswork to build a scalable, data-driven strategy.

The results speak for themselves: by 2028, the business achieved its ambitious goal of 7,596 customers, despite increasing churn challenges. For your startup, the lesson is clear—measure what matters, predict the future, and act decisively.

With tools like Monte Carlo Simulation and a focus on retention, you can confidently navigate the uncertainties of growth and build a thriving e-commerce brand.

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]]> https://www.gleeym.com/2024/12/14/churnrate-ecommerce-startup/feed/ 0 7268 Are Caring about the Penalty Clause in a Mega Construction Project? 3 Questions Need to be Addressed! https://www.gleeym.com/2021/02/21/penalty/ https://www.gleeym.com/2021/02/21/penalty/#respond Mon, 22 Feb 2021 00:00:10 +0000 https://www.gleeym.com/?p=2844

Construction Project - Better way to Envisage Your Project's Future. How? 4 Graphs are Enough to Illustrate!

Key Words

Construction, penalty, Delay, Contractor, Client, Owner, Construction Project, Project Delivery, Project Controls, Brown Field, Green Field, Cost Estimates, Schedule, Integrated Cost Risk Analysis, Risk Register, Execution, Planning, Remote Area, Skilled Labor, Material Handling, Bulk Material, Construction Equipment

Need Services? Contact us!

QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS

Summary

Delays in construction projects can lead to hefty penalties. These cost implications shouldn’t be overlooked and should be planned for in a variety of ways by both contractors and subcontractors. The importance of understanding and planning for these delays shouldn’t be underestimated, considering that contractors and subcontractors are often the ones responsible for paying the penalties. By understanding the consequences of delays, you can work to prevent those delays and avoid paying the penalties!

Read article on Project Cost and Risk analysis: 

https://www.gleeym.com/2021/02/16/accessroad/

Case Study

Access Road Construction Project that is required to be done well before commencing process plant construction. The project schedule, schedule and cost risk analysis have already been discussed in the previous article.

As per the penalty clause in the contract, $5,000/day penalty will be imposed to the contractor in case of delay for each day after the target date. Interestingly, there is no cap on penalties.

Top Risks

The top identified risks are:

  1. Flash Flood
  2. Delay in Delivery of Material
  3. Unavailability of Skilled Labor

 

Is it important to focus on Access Road Construction for mega Complex remote project? 4 Figures Depict a Complete Story!

Important Consideration

The construction industry is a high-risk, high-reward industry. It’s important for builders, contractors, and subcontractors to have a thorough understanding of the full cost implications of delays in construction projects. Understanding the potential penalties for delays can help your business plan better and potentially reduce your overall cost.

Construction delays can be a result of many different factors, but they are rarely the fault of the contractor doing work. The best way to avoid being placed in that situation is to make sure your project is documented with proper project controls. One of the factors to consider when maintaining project controls is the role that cost plays. It’s hard to estimate cost without knowing the impact of the delay you’re facing, which is why it’s so important to analyze the cost risks before projects begin. It’s also vital to integrate the risk analysis into your schedules and plans so that you can have well-executed plans that are also cost conscious. By making sure you understand cost implications before you plan, you can be sure that you have a plan that works well for your business!

Risk assessment for a mega complex construction project-www.gleeym.com/qra
Pic. 1 - Risk Assessment for Mega Complex Projects

Delays can happen to anyone who’s involved in construction projects. Contractors, subcontractors, and builders are required to understand the cost implications of delays. Knowing the penalties associated with uncompleted projects can provide valuable insight into how much money is available to complete a project. If you’re involved in a construction project, you should be aware of the different types of penalties that may be implemented. The most notable of these penalties are completion delays, mobilization delay, and liquidated damages.

Construction risk assessment-www.gleeym.com/qra
Pic. 2 - Construction Risk Assessment Services by GleeYM

Project Scenario

Project complete target date is 26-8-2021 with the cost estimates of $9 M.

The project owner put a penalty clause that if the project delays after the contractual deadline i.e., 26-9-2021, then there will be a penalty of five thousand ($5,000) dollars per day.

This analysis provides an equal opportunity to the client and the contractors including subcontractors to revise the schedule accordingly and negotiate the timelines and the budget.

Why to develop a model and run a Monte Carlo simulation? The simple answer is to forecast your project execution while planning in present.

QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS

There are three important questions that can be addressed for a client and a subcontractor:

  1. What are the chances that the project schedule will be delayed, and cost overrun?
  2. What will be the 50th percentile for a penalty in case of project delay?
  3. What will be the probabilities of occurrence of different possible outcomes for a penalty?

Quantitative Risk Analysis

GleeyM Offer services to identify risks and perform Quantitative Schedule Risk Analysis (QSRA) and Quantitative Cost Risk Analysis (QCRA) for mega complex projects!
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Probability distribution graph by www.gleeym.com/qra
Pic. 3 - Probability Distribution for a Project Schedule

There is 50% (mean) chance that project will be delayed by 62 days. Furthermore, there is 80% chance that project will be delayed by 85 days.

Project cost overrun distribution graph by www.gleeym.com/qra
Pic. 4 - Probability Distribution Graph for a project Cost

There is 50% chance that the project cost overrun will be $4.474 M. Whereas cost overrun will be $3.194M between P50 – P80.

Penalty

Penalty S-Curve by www.gleeym.com/qra
Pic. 5 - Penalty S-Curve

It’s crystal clear that based on the current schedule and mapped uncertainties and risks; the penalty will be substantial.

As per the contract, the penalty will be $5,000 per day. Therefore, there is a 50% chance that the penalty will be $160 K in case of project delay beyond the contractual deadline of 26-9-2021.

What if a project delays further? Then from a distribution graph, there is an 80% chance that the penalty will be $325 K.

The question is what will be the monetary benefit to the contractor? How to address it while negotiating the contract and mitigate plans during the project planning? In case of delay, will there be an impact on CAPEX? Will there be an impact on OPEX?

Kindly give your comments and like our articles for more updates!

Contact us for decision making under uncertainty services!

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Conclusion

Integrated risk analysis is an equally important for both Client and Contractor. Risk Based Decision Making is required to demonstrate ALARP/ALARA. By incorporating what if analysis in ITB, contracts and planning will definitely help to forecast project health and EVM.

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]]> https://www.gleeym.com/2021/02/21/penalty/feed/ 0 2844 Is it important to focus on Access Road Construction for mega Complex remote project? 4 Figures Depict a Complete Story! https://www.gleeym.com/2021/02/16/accessroad/ https://www.gleeym.com/2021/02/16/accessroad/#respond Tue, 16 Feb 2021 18:56:01 +0000 https://www.gleeym.com/?p=2646

Real Estate Development Project - Better way to Envisage Your Project's Future. How? 4 Graphs are Enough to Illustrate!

Keywords

Access road construction, Mega complex project, Construction project, Schedule delay, Cost overrun, Sensitivity analysis, Uncertainty, Risks, Weather, Flash flood, Energy, Oil & Gas, Mining, Monte Carlo simulation, What if analysis, Distribution graph, Cost risk analysis, Risk drivers, Schedule risk analysis, Integrated risk analysis

Summary

Energy and mining projects are complex and mostly being executed in remote areas. Site accessibility, weather, uneven terrain, and mobility are the factors that make it more difficult to execute remote area projects. After asset acquisition and getting all necessary permits, the construction of an access road to actual site area is a topmost priority.

Flash flood is unpredictable and can be showstopper in hilly terrain. Analyzing the impact of flash flood, using Monte Carlo simulation, helps to examine the various scenarios and plan mitigation actions to minimize the risk.

Case Study

The construction of access roads is an extremely important that needs to be done at the right time. Any delay in construction can delay the site access and mobilization of team and equipment for field development, and It also needs to be done with the best equipment and materials available, keeping in mind the specific needs of the client.

Flash Floods are unpredictable. Mostly, water follows its path, but it changes its direction depending upon the water quantity and pressure, etc.

Project Schedule

Level I project schedule is shown in fig. 1:

Level I Schedule developed by Gleeym for schedule and cost risk analysis
Fig. 1- Level 1 Schedule

Uncertainty and Risk

There can be a long list of  risks but considered only three (3) top risks.

  1. Flash Flood – Recurring flash flood from May to Sep to hamper Access Road Construction and Plant site.
  2. Delay in delivery of Bulk Material to site
  3. Unavailability of Skilled Labor

Risks were mapped to the activities along with the uncertainties.

Monte Carlo Simulation

After schedule check, mapping uncertainties and risks to schedule activities ran the Monte Carlo Simulation. The “Distribution Graph” is showing the results for a schedule in fig. 2:

Access Road S curve performed by GleeYM
Fig. 2 - Distribution Graph (S Curve) for a Schedule

With uncertainties and risks, the chances of meeting target date are almost 0%. The distribution graph shows that there will be a 50% (mean) chance that the project will be completed on 22-10-2021 i.e., 57 days.

What about the time-phased cost? The “Distribution Graph” is showing the results for a cost in fig. 3:

Time phase distribution graph for cost by Gleeym
Fig.3 - Distribution Graph (S Curve) for a Cost

With uncertainties and risks, the chances of meeting target estimated costs are almost 3%. The distribution graph shows that there will be 50% (mean) chance that extra cost will be $ 1,445,705. Furthermore, there will be an 80% chance that total project cost will be around $11.72 M.

Probability Cash Flow performed by Gleeym
Fig. 4 - Probabilistic Cash Flow (PCF)

What if to visualize the impact of Flash flood to schedule only? The “Distribution Graph” is showing the impact of Flash flood to a schedule in fig. 5.

Analyzing impact of single risk to a schedule. What if analysis
Fig. 5 - What if Analysis with Flash Flood Risk Only

With only Flash flood risk, the chances of meeting target date are almost 0%. The distribution graph shows that there will be 50% (mean) chance that schedule overrun will be 29 days. Furthermore, there will be an 80% chance that project completion date will be 29-10-2021 i.e., 34 days.

 While access roads can be constructed by any means necessary, it is much more cost-effective to use specialized contractors trained in their construction. Each contractor has specific standards that must be met before they begin any work.

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Conclusion

Access roads are crucial for any oil and gas project, not just for safety but also to allow construction equipment to enter the site, move materials, and complete the project. 

This is a story of a project that will be started out with a big dream and ended with great success. Nothing is easy; everything is challenging, but the results will be rewarding.

Question

Question: What if to build a bridge to over come the impact of a Flash Flood?

 

Answer: I will discuss it in the next article.

 

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]]> https://www.gleeym.com/2021/02/16/accessroad/feed/ 0 2646 5 Ways Risk Management Software Can Help Your Business. Are You Still Not Considering Risk Software? https://www.gleeym.com/2021/02/11/5waysrisk/ https://www.gleeym.com/2021/02/11/5waysrisk/#respond Fri, 12 Feb 2021 03:50:08 +0000 https://www.gleeym.com/?p=2368

Real Estate Development Project - Better way to Envisage Your Project's Future. How? 4 Graphs are Enough to Illustrate!

Keywords

Risk Management Software,  Software Implementation, Risk, Schedule Risk Analysis, Cost Risk Analysis, Monte Carlo Simulation, Risk Register, ERM, Qualitative Risk Analysis,  Quantitative Risk Analysis, Schedule, Cost, Dashboards, Data, Business Risk, Financial Risk

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Summary

Risk software is the most important asset of your business’s overall risk management system. You can’t afford to implement this technology without first understanding how it works, why you need it, and how it fits into your overall risk management strategy?

Mind Map for risk software by GLEEYM
Pic 1- Risk Implementation

Introduction

It’s not always easy to predict what the future will hold, so it can be difficult to understand how to manage risks in your business. However, with a risk management software solution, you’ll save time and money and help your company run more efficiently. 

Before an employee’s fingers hit their keyboard, they must make a decision about what kind of risk management software to use. Here are some tips on how to choose the right risk management software for your business and get started with implementing it.

GleeYM can help you with a valuable service to pick and incorporate risk management software for decision making and meeting strategic goals. Risk management software is critical to meet strategic goals. However, in this era of uncertainties, the best results happen when you implement risk management software that is easy to use, customizable, and fully integrated. While software selection, consider these following five points (5 ways) for more profitability, productivity, and sustainability:

  • Decision Making.
  • Schedule Risk Analysis.
  • Cost risk Analysis.
  • Project, Business and Financial Risk Analysis.
  • Key Risk Indicator.

Whether you want to select and implement a standalone or enterprise level software, we will walk you through the planning process and implementation methodology.

Contact GleeYM for more discussion.

visit

https://www.gleeym.com/software for details

Decision Making

Risk software is the most important asset of your business’s overall risk management system. You can’t afford to implement this technology without first understanding how it works, why you need it, and how it fits into your overall risk management strategy.

While software selection, consider these five (5) following points for more profitability, productivity and sustainability:

1- Decision Making

Risk software can help to make decision making under uncertainty. Quantitative Risk analysis software has the capability to specify input and associated uncertainties and risks. After performing Monte Carlo simulation, decision makers can get the numbers to make decision. 

2- Schedule Risk Analysis

Schedule risk analysis helps assign uncertainty and risk(s) to a specific activity. It helps to understand the impact of activity delay and immediate milestone.

visit https://www.gleeym.com/qra

https://www.gleeym.com/blog for more details

3- Cost Risk Analysis

Cost risk analysis helps to identify key cost drivers after performing Monte Carlo simulation. Advanced what-If analysis helps to simulate various scenarios and compare results.

visit https://www.gleeym.com/qra

https://www.gleeym.com/blog for more details

4- Project & Business, Financial Risk Analysis

In this era of 2nd machine age, change is inevitable. Cost of doing business, sustainability and meeting strategic goals are becoming challenging. Therefore, businesses are continuously evaluating uncertainties and risk associated with project and business by assessing NPV, IRR (Discounted cash flows), Loans, Credit risk, currency risk, trading and market risk etc.

visit https://www.gleeym.com/qra

https://www.gleeym.com/blog for more details

5- Monitor Key Risk Indicator (KRI)

Risk software helps to monitor key risk indicator (KRI). Analyzing KRI trends, helps to adapt decisions accordingly. 

Contact us: https://www.gleeym.com/contact 

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]]> https://www.gleeym.com/2021/02/11/5waysrisk/feed/ 0 2368 1 big reason, why to choose Long Lead Item as a “Focused Activity”? https://www.gleeym.com/2021/01/31/llirisk/ https://www.gleeym.com/2021/01/31/llirisk/#respond Sun, 31 Jan 2021 23:55:47 +0000 https://www.gleeym.com/?p=2154

1 Big Reason, Why To Choose Long Lead Item As A “Focused Activity”?

Keywords

Construction Procurement, Procurement Strategy, Long Lead Item, Gas Process Facility Construction, Sensitivity Analysis, Monte Carlo Analysis, Procurement Risk,  Distribution Graph, Cumulative distribution graph, Quantitative Schedule Risk Analysis, Quantitative Cost Risk Analysis

Summary

In mega complex project, managing risk is a necessity to ensure that your project is not derailed by unexpected events.

The world of construction procurement is a complex one. New processes, regulation, complex supply chain and complicated standards are popping up rapidly, making it difficult for construction companies and even for clients to stay on top for smooth execution.

Procurement (including contracts) is a key focus activity, especially the long lead items. Project schedule provides only a deterministic value. What if there is a delay in delivery of Long Lead Items to a site?

The distribution graph is showing, there is only a thirty three percent chance to meet the target date. If the anticipated risks occur, then What will happen? Of course, the construction, pre-commissioning, commissioning, and operations will be delayed. It will not only hamper CAPEX, but OPEX will also be impacted.

Quantitative Schedule Risk Analysis (QSRA)

Quantitative risk analysis is a computer-based method of analyzing the probability of a risk occurring and quantifying its effect on the project. It can be used to estimate expected costs and rate schedules for various projects i.e. Quantitative Schedule Risk Analysis (QSRA) & Quantitative Cost Risk Analysis  (QCRA)

Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) is a set of techniques that helps to prioritize and manage risk within a quantitative project. QRA tools assist decision makers in identifying the most critical risks and cost drivers for their projects, enabling them to make informed decisions about the future course of action.

Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) is the process of determining how likely it is that a particular investment decision will be successful. To do this, you need to quantify the potential risk in your project and assign a probability to each risk.

Procurement of Material and Long Lead Item (LLI) - A Focused Activity

It is important to understand that the quantitative risk assessment process will allow you to determine the level of risk that your project faces. What is the probability of events occurring? How likely are things to go wrong? In order to make sound decisions about strategic direction, you must have accurate information about the risks facing your project. 

A Gas process facility is a mega complex Greenfield construction project. According to the level-I schedule; a deterministic project completion duration is 966 days. After validating schedule, validate the schedule followed by Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). Procurement of Material and long lead item was considered as “Focused Activity.” It’s second main driver after the construction for schedule delay and cost over run.

It’s a common phrase that “Knowing Long lead Items (LLI) early will speed up the construction execution.” It’s nota reality in areal world of executing mega complex projects. There are many factors internal and external that influence timely delivery Long Lead Item (LLI) to site. Few factors are:

  • Design data
  • Purchase Requisition (PR)
  • Purchase Order (PO)
  • Shipment
  • Load and Unloading
  • Damage during shipment
  • Damage during road transportation
  • Insurance
  • Manufacturing location
  • Single source/sole source
  • Long lead Item dates are missing in schedule
  • Various versions of schedule within the project – very common in mega complex projects.
  • Date for delivery at a site
  • Shop drawing submittal
  • Date plus design data
  • Shop drawing approval data
  • Fabrication/manufacturing schedule
  • Fabrication start
  • Quality control, inspection and third party inspections
  • Manufacturing Site visit
  • FAT
  • Fabrication completion
  • Shipping Date
  • SAT
Above all the procurement process time line set by the procurement department should also be known. Normally for a mega project to issue a PO might take six (6) months.
Gleeym offers Quantitative schedule & cost risk analysis using Monte Carlo Simulation.
Fig 1 - A Cumulative Distribution Graph for a Finish Date

A Table -1 is showing percentile, cost and contingency reserved required for making risk-based decision regarding schedule. It’s the management choice to choose P50 or P80 for a cost contingency reserves. 

Table 1 for Schedule contingency reserve
Table 1- Schedule Contingency Reserve
Fig 2- A Cumulative Distribution Graph for a Cost

A Table -2 is showing percentile, cost and contingency reserved required for making risk-based decision regarding cost. It’s the management choice to choose P50 or P80 for a cost contingency reserves.

Cost Contingency Reserve
Table 2 - Cost Contingency Reserve

Conclusion

It’s the management choice to choose P50 or P80 for a contingency reserve. The Organization usually prefers P80. Determine the contingency reverse is the one (1) biggest reason!

During a project start the level of information is low and risk is high. Therefore, it is recommended to run the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) at the beginning of project phase or before gate approval of a previous phase. It will support management to make a decision under uncertainty. A monte Carlo simulation is a requirement for making risk-based decision. It’s not optional!

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    https://www.gleeym.com/product/risktraining/ ‎

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    Read professional written articles based on real case scenario

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    Successful and effective risk management system is essential for successful project, business growth, sustainability and meeting strategic goals.

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    Basic to advance mind mapping for small to big projects, business and planning.

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]]> https://www.gleeym.com/2021/01/31/llirisk/feed/ 0 2154 Digital Product Development and Decision Making Under Uncertainty https://www.gleeym.com/2020/10/20/digitalproduct/ https://www.gleeym.com/2020/10/20/digitalproduct/#respond Wed, 21 Oct 2020 03:05:26 +0000 https://www.gleeym.com/?p=1961

Digital Product Development and Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Digitization is dominating in this era of 2nd machine age. A webinar. Worth watching it. Isn't?

The failure rate is high in case of product Development. Technology, competitors, and market dynamics are the key factors, but one can’t ignore cost and schedule.
Cost and schedule model development is the starting point to plan the development of a digital product.
Whether it’s agile, scrum, or waterfall, planning is utmost to avoid financial loss.

@RISK helps to model uncertainty to cost and schedule. @RISK has the capability to analyze the schedule without using any scheduling software and apply uncertainty.

Whether it’s agile or scrum or waterfall methodology, developing schedule and cost estimate are essential.  

 

<div id=”wi105″><div class=”sq_wiki_content” style=”position: relative;clear: both;background: white;font-size: 14px;color: #333;max-width: 500px;margin: 5px auto 5px auto;padding: 13px;border: 1px solid #DDD;-webkit-box-shadow: 0 1px 0 #DDD;-moz-box-shadow: 0 1px 0 #ddd;box-shadow: 0 1px 0 #DDD;”><a id=”w_0″ class=”sq_wiki” href=”//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decision_theory” title=”Decision theory” style=”display: block;font-weight: 700;color: #0074B7;line-height: 1.4em;margin-bottom: 5px;text-decoration: none;”>Decision theory</a><div class=”sq_wiki_text” style=”font-style:italic;color: #333;”>re-evaluation of what useful <span class=”searchmatch”>decision</span>-<span class=”searchmatch”>making</span> requires. The area of choice <span class=”searchmatch”>under</span> <span class=”searchmatch”>uncertainty</span> represents the heart of <span class=”searchmatch”>decision</span> theory. Known from the 17th</div></div></div><div><br style=”clear:both” /></div>

<a href=”https://www.gleeym.com/2021/02/11/5waysrisk/” title=”5 Ways Risk Management Software Can Help Your Business. Are You Still Not Considering Risk Software?” style=”font-style:italic;color: #333;”>https://www.gleeym.com/2021/02/11/5waysrisk/</a>

Also visit following link to watch recorded webinar

Capital Project Petrochemical Process Plant, IRR, and NPV Analysis – Webinar

Digital product development and decision making under uncertainty - www.gleeym.com/qra
Pic-1 Digital Product Development
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]]> https://www.gleeym.com/2020/10/20/digitalproduct/feed/ 0 1961 Capital Project Petrochemical Process Plant, IRR, and NPV Analysis – Webinar https://www.gleeym.com/2020/08/25/capitalproject/ https://www.gleeym.com/2020/08/25/capitalproject/#respond Tue, 25 Aug 2020 22:10:20 +0000 https://www.gleeym.com/?p=1607

Capital project for the petrochemical process plant (downstream) is slightly different from other capital projects. It requires estimating Total Installed Cost (TIC) plus Owner cost in order to find the complete project cost. Cost estimation for petrochemical process plant is comprised of equipment specification and definite plant facility information.

In this case study, there are 2 products that will be sold in two regions. The price strategy is different so the IRR and NPV will be calculated for base case and under uncertainties and risks. Then we’ll compare the IRR and NPV under different scenarios.

Also visit following link to watch recorded webinar

Digital Product Development and Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Petrochemical plant project management - www.gleeym.com/qra
Pic-1 Project Management
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https://www.gleeym.com/qra/ – for services detail

 

Quantitative Risk Analysis

GleeyM Offer services to identify risks and perform Quantitative Schedule Risk Analysis (QSRA) and Quantitative Cost Risk Analysis (QCRA) for mega complex projects!
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Unique Services for Software Selection and Implementation

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Mind Maps for Business Profitability

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]]> https://www.gleeym.com/2020/08/25/capitalproject/feed/ 0 1607 Risk Management with Mind Maps https://www.gleeym.com/2020/05/26/webinarmm/ https://www.gleeym.com/2020/05/26/webinarmm/#respond Tue, 26 May 2020 20:37:09 +0000 https://www.gleeym.com/?p=1525

It was a great interactive risk management process walk through with real examples. Discussed:

1- Risk Management plan along with its components

2- Risk Identification. Using sticky notes digitally.

3- Qualitative Risk Analysis. Discussed in details Risk Matrix and who aligned it with Enterprise Risk Management.

4- Quantitative Risk Analysis. Discussed schedule, schedule audit, cost estimates and Monte Carlo simulation in considering real example that is ” Digital Risk Management Project”.

5- Risk Responses: What to consider and how to plan a mitigation actions. Discussed Risk Contingency and how to calculate it.

6- Risk Register: Shown risk register with example

7- Risk Communication: Stakeholder Identification, Stakeholder Analysis and communication with them on a priority basis.

8-Risk Mitigation Actions: SMART, avoid ensure and meetings words. Planned Vs Actual.

Last but not the least ” Threat To opportunity”. Develop new type of simplified BowTie with Mitigation actions instead of impacts.

Services By GleeYM

RISK MANAGEMENT SYSTEM

QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS

MIND MAPPING SOLUTIONS

TRAINING THAT WORKS FOR YOU. HOW? DISCUSSES

Buy Our Services on Mind Mapping

GleeYM offers services in risk management, PMO, Mind mapping
Schedule and cost estimates after creating mind map
Pic - Schedule and Cost Estimate with Mind Map

Mind Mapping Services​

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Areas of expertise in Mind mapping, but not limited to:

  1. Project Risk Management; qualitative and quantitative risk analysis for cost and schedule using Monte Carlo Simulation. Enterprise Risk Management (ISO 31000)
  2. Facilitating project planning, risk and project management. Experienced with both physical and virtual)
  3. Visual project management by integrating Mind maps with MS Projects
  4. PMO set up, process Improvement
  5. Enterprise Project Management software planning, deployment and implementation
  6. IT project within Agile, scrum and waterfall (hands on experience with JIRA and Confluence)
  7. Digital Risk Management (Integrating risk management with Cyber security)
  8. Process Safety, HSE and Fire Safety for Oil & Gas
  9. Product Development Physical and Digital
  10. Digital Transformation and Change Management
  11. Training (Experience with both in person and virtual. )

This webinar was recorded for the Biggerplate PRO members.  To find out more, visit https://www.biggerplate.com/PRO

Mind Maps for Business Profitability

Want to tell your story in a creative and memorable way? Well, the GleeYM can help you.
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Quantitative Risk Analysis

GleeyM Offer services to identify risks and perform Quantitative Schedule Risk Analysis (QSRA) and Quantitative Cost Risk Analysis (QCRA) for mega complex projects!
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]]> https://www.gleeym.com/2020/05/26/webinarmm/feed/ 0 1525 Decisive Decision Making for Digital Risk Management (DRM) – A Headway to Digital Transformation https://www.gleeym.com/2020/03/25/decisionmaking/ https://www.gleeym.com/2020/03/25/decisionmaking/#respond Thu, 26 Mar 2020 02:02:44 +0000 https://www.gleeym.com/?p=1475

Digital Transformation

Aligning resources to remain competitive and meeting strategic goals are cumbersome in this era of “Digital Transformation”. Digital transformation is reshaping the corporate world. Pursuing the digitizing requires a sense of urgency, change management agents, and the ability to choose the optimal decision based on the data. Decision making requires Data as input and presenting data in the form of alternatives/options to select the best one i.e. Risk-Based Decision Making.

In the concept phase, the project initial phase, presenting alternatives and choosing the best one is the key to success. Collecting data, reshaping the data, defining correlation and keeping eye on key risk drivers certainly helps to come to a conclusion and get buy-in from the key stakeholders. Presenting numbers/analytics to board members or partners are always a “Game Changer” to win.

Decision Tree Analysis helps to portray various decisions with data. Decision Tree infused with Date helps to determine optimal path and display combination of inputs for the corresponding output. It helps to better understand the uncertainties associated with the data and perform further analysis as per requirement for decision making.   

Case Study: Digital Risk Management

SVP Technical decided to align projects with strategic goals and section of projects as per scorecard or set criteria. He chose SharePoint for an Enterprise solution. SharePoint is a masterpiece for collaboration and share information among the various Stakeholder. SharePoint is a content repository. His idea was based on an Enterprise solution. He presented this idea to the board members for final approval.

During the formal discussion, one prominent and dominant board member and the main investor asked him questions:

1- What if Enterprise deployment fails?

2- What if consider deployment first for Megaprojects only?

This could be the “Show Stopper” to get the final approval and budget allocation. Meeting adjourned with remarks/decision to present the idea again with best possible alternatives and answers these two questions to make the most of it.

After several meetings and brainstorming sessions, developed “Decision Tree” with associated cost and monetary benefits. A data table is given below:

Visit following links for more details:

QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS

RISK MANAGEMENT SYSTEM

Decision Tree for Decision Making

Decision Tree Data Table by Gleeym
Table 1 - Decision Tree Data Table

Cost of Complete Deployment for Enterprise Project Management was $ 700K. A 65 % probability to save (benefit) $2 M in case of successful deployment and meeting objectives. 35% probability of losses. The losses that would be $200k in case of delays, resistance from the stakeholder for change and interruptions because of low productivity.

More risk-averse approach to deploying and implement the software for megaproject only i.e. Partial Deployment. Cost of Partial Deployment was $350K. Probability of success was 70% with cost-saving of $ 1 M while the probability of failure was 30% with a loss of $ 100k.

Decision Tree with Chance Nodes
Pic 1 - Decision Tree with Chance Nodes

2 -way sensitivity 3-D graph shows a combination of two (2) inputs and the corresponding output. Choose two inputs to display corresponding output values i.e. Expected Values.

Two Way Sensitivity Graph - www.gleeym.com
Graph 1 - Two Way Sensitivity Graph

Strategy Region Graph is used to portray the best decision for the combination of the two inputs. Diamond Shaped icon is used to display the corresponding combination. It provides headway to choose option precisely based on data.

Graph 2 - Strategy Region Graph

Big Picture:

Big Picture portrays Decision Tree in a dynamic way. Eye-catching graphics help to visually illustrate the various components of the complex Decision Tree. It helps to present an idea to the management in an interactive way. Below given Big Pictures are showing the complete Decision Tree in fragments. It provides a framework to analyze various options critically for digital risk management.

Big Picture- Decision Tree 1 by www.gleeym.com
Big Picture- Decision Tree 2 by www.gleeym.com
Big Picture- Decision Tree 3 by www.gleeym.com
Big Picture- Decision Tree 4 by www.gleeym.com
Big Picture- Decision Tree 5 by www.gleeym.com

Conclusion - Decisive Decision Making

After presenting data in a structured and graphical way, the Board approved the project with one condition. The condition was to implement the project in phases:

1- In the first phase deploy software partially for mega-projects only.

2- In the second phase deploy the complete project and align overall project scope.

Decision Making requires Critical Thinking and aligning data to Project scope statement. It helps to collect, reshape and align data to address actual problem and make the right decision in digital risk management!

Thank you

@RISK

]]> https://www.gleeym.com/2020/03/25/decisionmaking/feed/ 0 1475 Planning and Implementing EPPM for PMO using Mind Mapping. How? 1 Picture Illustrates https://www.gleeym.com/2020/03/07/mindmappmo/ https://www.gleeym.com/2020/03/07/mindmappmo/#respond Sat, 07 Mar 2020 05:35:01 +0000 https://www.gleeym.com/?p=1402

Planning and Implementation of EPPM for PMO using Mind Mapping. How? 1 Picture Illustrates

A Digital Transformation program with intensive change management initiative to digitize PMO. Used methodology of MindMapping for planning and facilitating workshops with Stakeholders.

Enterprise level Software Implementation Project Management using MindMap – Digital transformation project. Facilitated the workshop with key stakeholders are developed MindMap to visualize and walk through the complete project life cycle. MindMap helps to brainstorm, organize and link data. 

Connected the dots and realize the opportunity by developing schedule, cost estimates, resource estimates, supply chain mode, and risk management. High level a part of digital output for a digital project is attached.

Case Study

Planned, Designed and Implemented Enterprise Project Management software rollout    for a PMO. Integration with the current system, customization and data synchronization were the key success factors.

It was a P3 project at the enterprise level. The   team was inexperienced in project management, but dynamic and tech-savvy.

  1. Arranged interviews with the key stakeholders;
  2. Facilitated workshop to discuss and identify the gaps; 
  3. Planned  Roadmap for the implementation with clear roles and responsibility;
  4.  Quantitative Cost and Schedule risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation;

 

High-level mind map is illustrated below:

Planned and Implemented EPPM Solution for PMO using Mind Mapping
EPPM Implementation for PMO
Planned and Implemented EPPM Solution for PMO using Mind Mapping
EPPM solution for PMO

Quantitative Risk Analysis

GleeyM Offer services to identify risks and perform Quantitative Schedule Risk Analysis (QSRA) and Quantitative Cost Risk Analysis (QCRA) for mega complex projects!
Click Here

Unique Services for Software Selection and Implementation

GleeYM can help you with a valuable service to pick and incorporate risk management software for decision making and meeting strategic goals!
Click Here

Workshop Facilitation

GleeYM Offers Workshop Facilitation to help you to make the best decisions for your business and projects.
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