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	<title>Schedule Risk Analysis &#8211; GleeYM</title>
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		<title>Is it important to focus on Access Road Construction for mega Complex remote project? 4 Figures Depict a Complete Story!</title>
		<link>https://www.gleeym.com/2021/02/16/accessroad/</link>
					<comments>https://www.gleeym.com/2021/02/16/accessroad/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[mindmap]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 16 Feb 2021 18:56:01 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Cost Risk Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Decision Making]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Monte Carlo Simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[PMO]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Project]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Quantitative]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Schedule Risk Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Software]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Access road construction]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Construction project]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cost overrun]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Distribution Graph]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Energy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Flash flood]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Integrated risk analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mega complex project]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mining]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Oil & Gas]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Risk drivers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Risks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Schedule delay]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sensitivity Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Weather]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[What if analysis]]></category>
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					<description><![CDATA[Real Estate Development Project &#8211; Better way to Envisage Your Project&#8217;s Future. How? 4 Graphs are Enough to Illustrate! Keywords Access road construction, Mega complex project, Construction project, Schedule delay, Cost overrun, Sensitivity analysis, Uncertainty, Risks, Weather, Flash flood, Energy, Oil &#38; Gas, Mining, Monte Carlo simulation, What if analysis, Distribution graph, Cost risk analysis, [&#8230;]]]></description>
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					<h1 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">Real Estate Development Project - Better way to Envisage Your Project's Future. How? 4 Graphs are Enough to Illustrate!</h1>				</div>
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					<h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">Keywords</h2>				</div>
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		</section>
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									<p style="text-align: justify;">Access road construction, Mega complex project, Construction project, Schedule delay, Cost overrun, Sensitivity analysis, Uncertainty, Risks, Weather, Flash flood, Energy, Oil &amp; Gas, Mining, Monte Carlo simulation, What if analysis, Distribution graph, Cost risk analysis, Risk drivers, Schedule risk analysis, Integrated risk analysis</p>								</div>
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					<h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">Summary</h2>				</div>
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									<p style="text-align: justify;">Energy and mining projects are complex and mostly being executed in remote areas. Site accessibility, weather, uneven terrain, and mobility are the factors that make it more difficult to execute remote area projects. After asset acquisition and getting all necessary permits, the construction of an access road to actual site area is a topmost priority.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">Flash flood is unpredictable and can be showstopper in hilly terrain. Analyzing the impact of flash flood, using Monte Carlo simulation, helps to examine the various scenarios and plan mitigation actions to minimize the risk.</p>								</div>
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					<h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">Case Study</h2>				</div>
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									<p style="text-align: justify;">The construction of access roads is an extremely important that needs to be done at the right time. Any delay in construction can delay the site access and mobilization of team and equipment for field development, and It also needs to be done with the best equipment and materials available, keeping in mind the specific needs of the client.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">Flash Floods are unpredictable. Mostly, water follows its path, but it changes its direction depending upon the water quantity and pressure, etc.</p>								</div>
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					<h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">Project Schedule</h2>				</div>
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									<p style="text-align: justify;">Level I project schedule is shown in fig. 1:</p>								</div>
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										<img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" width="800" height="146" src="https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Access-Road-Schedule-1024x187.png" class="attachment-large size-large wp-image-2672" alt="Level I Schedule developed by Gleeym for schedule and cost risk analysis" srcset="https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Access-Road-Schedule-1024x187.png 1024w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Access-Road-Schedule-300x55.png 300w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Access-Road-Schedule-768x141.png 768w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Access-Road-Schedule-1536x281.png 1536w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Access-Road-Schedule-600x110.png 600w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Access-Road-Schedule.png 1574w" sizes="(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px" />											<figcaption class="widget-image-caption wp-caption-text">Fig. 1- Level 1 Schedule</figcaption>
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					<h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">Uncertainty and Risk</h2>				</div>
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									<p>There can be a long list of  risks but considered only three (3) top risks.</p><ol><li>Flash Flood – Recurring flash flood from May to Sep to hamper Access Road Construction and Plant site.</li><li>Delay in delivery of Bulk Material to site</li><li>Unavailability of Skilled Labor</li></ol><p>Risks were mapped to the activities along with the uncertainties.</p>								</div>
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					<h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">Monte Carlo Simulation</h2>				</div>
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									<p style="text-align: justify;">After schedule check, mapping uncertainties and risks to schedule activities ran the Monte Carlo Simulation. The “Distribution Graph” is showing the results for a schedule in fig. 2:</p>								</div>
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										<img decoding="async" width="800" height="438" src="https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Access-Road-S-curve-1024x560.png" class="attachment-large size-large wp-image-2693" alt="Access Road S curve performed by GleeYM" srcset="https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Access-Road-S-curve-1024x560.png 1024w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Access-Road-S-curve-300x164.png 300w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Access-Road-S-curve-768x420.png 768w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Access-Road-S-curve-600x328.png 600w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Access-Road-S-curve.png 1098w" sizes="(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px" />											<figcaption class="widget-image-caption wp-caption-text">Fig. 2 - Distribution Graph (S Curve) for a Schedule</figcaption>
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									<p style="text-align: justify;">With uncertainties and risks, the chances of meeting target date are almost 0%. The distribution graph shows that there will be a 50% (mean) chance that the project will be completed on 22-10-2021 i.e., 57 days.</p>								</div>
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									<p style="text-align: justify;">What about the time-phased cost? The “Distribution Graph” is showing the results for a cost in fig. 3:</p>								</div>
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										<img decoding="async" width="800" height="517" src="https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Cost-1024x662.png" class="attachment-large size-large wp-image-2709" alt="Time phase distribution graph for cost by Gleeym" srcset="https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Cost-1024x662.png 1024w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Cost-300x194.png 300w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Cost-768x496.png 768w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Cost-600x388.png 600w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Cost.png 1032w" sizes="(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px" />											<figcaption class="widget-image-caption wp-caption-text">Fig.3 - Distribution Graph (S Curve) for a Cost</figcaption>
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									<p style="text-align: justify;">With uncertainties and risks, the chances of meeting target estimated costs are almost 3%. The distribution graph shows that there will be 50% (mean) chance that extra cost will be $ 1,445,705. Furthermore, there will be an 80% chance that total project cost will be around $11.72 M.</p>								</div>
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										<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="800" height="413" src="https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/PCF-1024x529.png" class="attachment-large size-large wp-image-2720" alt="Probability Cash Flow performed by Gleeym" srcset="https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/PCF-1024x529.png 1024w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/PCF-300x155.png 300w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/PCF-768x397.png 768w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/PCF-600x310.png 600w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/PCF.png 1276w" sizes="(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px" />											<figcaption class="widget-image-caption wp-caption-text">Fig. 4 - Probabilistic Cash Flow (PCF)</figcaption>
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									<p style="text-align: justify;">What if to visualize the impact of Flash flood to schedule only? The “Distribution Graph” is showing the impact of Flash flood to a schedule in fig. 5.</p>								</div>
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										<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="800" height="466" src="https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Flash-Flood-1024x597.png" class="attachment-large size-large wp-image-2733" alt="Analyzing impact of single risk to a schedule. What if analysis" srcset="https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Flash-Flood-1024x597.png 1024w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Flash-Flood-300x175.png 300w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Flash-Flood-768x448.png 768w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Flash-Flood-600x350.png 600w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Flash-Flood.png 1096w" sizes="(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px" />											<figcaption class="widget-image-caption wp-caption-text">Fig. 5 - What if Analysis with Flash Flood Risk Only</figcaption>
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									<p style="text-align: justify;">With only Flash flood risk, the chances of meeting target date are almost 0%. The distribution graph shows that there will be 50% (mean) chance that schedule overrun will be 29 days. Furthermore, there will be an 80% chance that project completion date will be 29-10-2021 i.e., 34 days.</p>								</div>
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									<p style="text-align: justify;">&nbsp;While access roads can be constructed by any means necessary, it is much more cost-effective to use specialized contractors trained in their construction. Each contractor has specific standards that must be met before they begin any work.</p>								</div>
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									<p style="text-align: justify;">Access roads are crucial for any oil and gas project, not just for safety but also to allow construction equipment to enter the site, move materials, and complete the project. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">This is a story of a project that will be started out with a big dream and ended with great success. Nothing is easy; everything is challenging, but the results will be rewarding.</p>								</div>
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									<h3>Question: What if to build a bridge to over come the impact of a Flash Flood?</h3><h3> </h3><h3>Answer: I will discuss it in the next article.</h3><h3> </h3>								</div>
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									<h3><a href="https://estore.gleeym.com">https://estore.gleeym.com  &#8211; All solutions for Website, Graphics, 2D animation, Doodle videos and Explainer Animated Videos.</a></h3>								</div>
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		<title>5 Ways Risk Management Software Can Help Your Business. Are You Still Not Considering Risk Software?</title>
		<link>https://www.gleeym.com/2021/02/11/5waysrisk/</link>
					<comments>https://www.gleeym.com/2021/02/11/5waysrisk/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[mindmap]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 12 Feb 2021 03:50:08 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Cost Risk Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Decision Making]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Decision Tree]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ERM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mind Map]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Project Risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Quantitative]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Schedule Risk Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Project]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Risk Register]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Software implementation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[software selection]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.gleeym.com/?p=2368</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Real Estate Development Project &#8211; Better way to Envisage Your Project&#8217;s Future. How? 4 Graphs are Enough to Illustrate! Keywords Risk Management Software,  Software Implementation, Risk, Schedule Risk Analysis, Cost Risk Analysis, Monte Carlo Simulation, Risk Register, ERM, Qualitative Risk Analysis,  Quantitative Risk Analysis, Schedule, Cost, Dashboards, Data, Business Risk, Financial Risk Contact Summary Risk [&#8230;]]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[		<div data-elementor-type="wp-post" data-elementor-id="2368" class="elementor elementor-2368" data-elementor-post-type="post">
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					<h1 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">Real Estate Development Project - Better way to Envisage Your Project's Future. How? 4 Graphs are Enough to Illustrate!</h1>				</div>
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					<h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">Keywords</h2>				</div>
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									<p>Risk Management Software,  Software Implementation, Risk, Schedule Risk Analysis, Cost Risk Analysis, Monte Carlo Simulation, Risk Register, ERM, Qualitative Risk Analysis,  Quantitative Risk Analysis, Schedule, Cost, Dashboards, Data, Business Risk, Financial Risk</p>								</div>
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					<h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">Summary</h2>				</div>
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									<p style="text-align: justify;">Risk software is the most important asset of your business’s overall risk management system. You can&#8217;t afford to implement this technology without first understanding how it works, why you need it, and how it fits into your overall risk management strategy?</p>								</div>
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										<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="800" height="311" src="https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Software-Selection-for-a-PMO-Website-scaled-1-1024x398.jpg" class="attachment-large size-large wp-image-2300" alt="Mind Map for risk software by GLEEYM" srcset="https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Software-Selection-for-a-PMO-Website-scaled-1-1024x398.jpg 1024w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Software-Selection-for-a-PMO-Website-scaled-1-300x116.jpg 300w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Software-Selection-for-a-PMO-Website-scaled-1-768x298.jpg 768w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Software-Selection-for-a-PMO-Website-scaled-1-1536x596.jpg 1536w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Software-Selection-for-a-PMO-Website-scaled-1-2048x795.jpg 2048w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Software-Selection-for-a-PMO-Website-scaled-1-600x233.jpg 600w" sizes="(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px" />											<figcaption class="widget-image-caption wp-caption-text">Pic 1- Risk Implementation</figcaption>
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					<h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">Introduction</h2>				</div>
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									<p style="text-align: justify;">It&#8217;s not always easy to predict what the future will hold, so it can be difficult to understand how to manage risks in your business. However, with a risk management software solution, you&#8217;ll save time and money and help your company run more efficiently. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">Before an employee&#8217;s fingers hit their keyboard, they must make a decision about what kind of risk management software to use. Here are some tips on how to choose the right risk management software for your business and get started with implementing it.</p>								</div>
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									<p style="text-align: justify;">GleeYM can help you with a valuable service to pick and incorporate risk management software for decision making and meeting strategic goals. Risk management software is critical to meet strategic goals. However, in this era of uncertainties, the best results happen when you implement risk management software that is easy to use, customizable, and fully integrated. While software selection, consider these following five points (5 ways) for more profitability, productivity, and sustainability:</p><ul style="text-align: justify;"><li>Decision Making.</li><li>Schedule Risk Analysis.</li><li>Cost risk Analysis.</li><li>Project, Business and Financial Risk Analysis.</li><li>Key Risk Indicator.</li></ul><p style="text-align: justify;">Whether you want to select and implement a standalone or enterprise level software, we will walk you through the planning process and implementation methodology.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">Contact GleeYM for more discussion.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;">visit</span></p><h2 class="MsoNormal"><a href="https://www.gleeym.com/software">https://www.gleeym.com/software</a> for details</h2>								</div>
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					<h1 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default"><a href="https://www.gleeym.com/software">Schedule Risk Analysis</a></h1>				</div>
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									<p style="text-align: justify;">Risk software is the most important asset of your business’s overall risk management system. You can&#8217;t afford to implement this technology without first understanding how it works, why you need it, and how it fits into your overall risk management strategy.</p>								</div>
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					<p class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">While software selection, consider these five (5) following points for more profitability, productivity and sustainability:</p>				</div>
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					<h3 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">1- Decision Making</h3>				</div>
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									<p style="text-align: justify;">Risk software can help to make decision making under uncertainty. Quantitative Risk analysis software has the capability to specify input and associated uncertainties and risks. After performing Monte Carlo simulation, decision makers can get the numbers to make decision. </p>								</div>
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					<h3 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">2- Schedule Risk Analysis</h3>				</div>
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									<p>Schedule risk analysis helps assign uncertainty and risk(s) to a specific activity. It helps to understand the impact of activity delay and immediate milestone.</p><p>visit <a href="https://www.gleeym.com/qra">https://www.gleeym.com/qra</a></p><p><a href="https://www.gleeym.com/blog">https://www.gleeym.com/blog</a> for more details</p>								</div>
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					<h3 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">3- Cost Risk Analysis</h3>				</div>
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									<p style="text-align: justify;">Cost risk analysis helps to identify key cost drivers after performing Monte Carlo simulation. Advanced what-If analysis helps to simulate various scenarios and compare results.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">visit <a href="https://www.gleeym.com/qra">https://www.gleeym.com/qra</a></p><p><a href="https://www.gleeym.com/blog">https://www.gleeym.com/blog</a> for more details</p>								</div>
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					<h3 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">4- Project &amp; Business, Financial Risk Analysis</h3>				</div>
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									<p style="text-align: justify;">In this era of 2nd machine age, change is inevitable. Cost of doing business, sustainability and meeting strategic goals are becoming challenging. Therefore, businesses are continuously evaluating uncertainties and risk associated with project and business by assessing NPV, IRR (Discounted cash flows), Loans, Credit risk, currency risk, trading and market risk etc.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">visit <a href="https://www.gleeym.com/qra">https://www.gleeym.com/qra</a></p><p><a href="https://www.gleeym.com/blog">https://www.gleeym.com/blog</a> for more details</p>								</div>
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					<h3 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">5- Monitor Key Risk Indicator (KRI)</h3>				</div>
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									<p style="text-align: justify;">Risk software helps to monitor key risk indicator (KRI). Analyzing KRI trends, helps to adapt decisions accordingly. </p><p>Contact us: <a href="https://www.gleeym.com/contact">https://www.gleeym.com/contact </a></p>								</div>
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    </div><div class="eael-star-rating star-rating"><span style="width:0%">Rated <strong class="rating">0</strong> out of 5</span></div><div class="eael-product-price"><span class="woocommerce-Price-amount amount"><bdi><span class="woocommerce-Price-currencySymbol">&#36;</span>1,299.00</bdi></span></div>    <a href="https://www.gleeym.com/product/iraproject/?add-to-cart=5693" aria-describedby="woocommerce_loop_add_to_cart_link_describedby_5693" data-quantity="1" class="button product_type_simple add_to_cart_button ajax_add_to_cart" data-product_id="5693" data-product_sku="" aria-label="Add to cart: &ldquo;Integrated Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis For MS Project Users&rdquo;" rel="nofollow" data-success_message="&ldquo;Integrated Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis For MS Project Users&rdquo; has been added to your cart">Add to cart</a>	<span id="woocommerce_loop_add_to_cart_link_describedby_5693" class="screen-reader-text">
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		<item>
		<title>Digital Product Development and Decision Making Under Uncertainty</title>
		<link>https://www.gleeym.com/2020/10/20/digitalproduct/</link>
					<comments>https://www.gleeym.com/2020/10/20/digitalproduct/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[mindmap]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 21 Oct 2020 03:05:26 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Cost Risk Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Decision Making]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Decision Tree]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Digital Transformation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Monte Carlo Simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[PERT]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[PMO]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Project]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Project Control]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Schedule Risk Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Integrated Cost Schedule Risk Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Project Management]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Project Risk]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.gleeym.com/?p=1961</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Digital Product Development and Decision Making Under Uncertainty Digitization is dominating in this era of 2nd machine age. A webinar. Worth watching it. Isn&#8217;t? The failure rate is high in case of product Development. Technology, competitors, and market dynamics are the key factors, but one can’t ignore cost and schedule.Cost and schedule model development is [&#8230;]]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[		<div data-elementor-type="wp-post" data-elementor-id="1961" class="elementor elementor-1961" data-elementor-post-type="post">
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					<h1 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">Digital Product Development and Decision Making Under Uncertainty</h1>				</div>
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					<h3 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">Digitization is dominating in this era of 2nd machine age. A webinar. Worth watching it. Isn't?</h3>				</div>
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									<p style="text-align: justify;">The failure rate is high in case of product Development. Technology, competitors, and market dynamics are the key factors, but one can’t ignore cost and schedule.<br />Cost and schedule model development is the starting point to plan the development of a digital product.<br />Whether it’s agile, scrum, or waterfall, planning is utmost to avoid financial loss.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">@RISK helps to model uncertainty to cost and schedule. @RISK has the capability to analyze the schedule without using any scheduling software and apply uncertainty.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">Whether it&#8217;s agile or scrum or waterfall methodology, developing schedule and cost estimate are essential.  </p><p> </p>								</div>
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									<p>&lt;div id=&#8221;wi105&#8243;&gt;&lt;div class=&#8221;sq_wiki_content&#8221; style=&#8221;position: relative;clear: both;background: white;font-size: 14px;color: #333;max-width: 500px;margin: 5px auto 5px auto;padding: 13px;border: 1px solid #DDD;-webkit-box-shadow: 0 1px 0 #DDD;-moz-box-shadow: 0 1px 0 #ddd;box-shadow: 0 1px 0 #DDD;&#8221;&gt;&lt;a id=&#8221;w_0&#8243; class=&#8221;sq_wiki&#8221; href=&#8221;//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decision_theory&#8221; title=&#8221;Decision theory&#8221; style=&#8221;display: block;font-weight: 700;color: #0074B7;line-height: 1.4em;margin-bottom: 5px;text-decoration: none;&#8221;&gt;Decision theory&lt;/a&gt;&lt;div class=&#8221;sq_wiki_text&#8221; style=&#8221;font-style:italic;color: #333;&#8221;&gt;re-evaluation of what useful &lt;span class=&#8221;searchmatch&#8221;&gt;decision&lt;/span&gt;-&lt;span class=&#8221;searchmatch&#8221;&gt;making&lt;/span&gt; requires. The area of choice &lt;span class=&#8221;searchmatch&#8221;&gt;under&lt;/span&gt; &lt;span class=&#8221;searchmatch&#8221;&gt;uncertainty&lt;/span&gt; represents the heart of &lt;span class=&#8221;searchmatch&#8221;&gt;decision&lt;/span&gt; theory. Known from the 17th&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;br style=&#8221;clear:both&#8221; /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</p>								</div>
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									<p>&lt;a href=&#8221;https://www.gleeym.com/2021/02/11/5waysrisk/&#8221; title=&#8221;5 Ways Risk Management Software Can Help Your Business. Are You Still Not Considering Risk Software?&#8221; style=&#8221;font-style:italic;color: #333;&#8221;&gt;https://www.gleeym.com/2021/02/11/5waysrisk/&lt;/a&gt;</p>								</div>
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									<p><blockquote class="wp-embedded-content" data-secret="b3HWMCSShr"><a href="https://www.gleeym.com/2020/08/25/capitalproject/">Capital Project Petrochemical Process Plant, IRR, and NPV Analysis &#8211; Webinar</a></blockquote><iframe class="wp-embedded-content" sandbox="allow-scripts" security="restricted"  title="&#8220;Capital Project Petrochemical Process Plant, IRR, and NPV Analysis &#8211; Webinar&#8221; &#8212; GleeYM" src="https://www.gleeym.com/2020/08/25/capitalproject/embed/#?secret=b3HWMCSShr" data-secret="b3HWMCSShr" width="600" height="338" frameborder="0" marginwidth="0" marginheight="0" scrolling="no"></iframe></p>								</div>
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						GleeyM Offer services to identify risks and perform Quantitative Schedule Risk Analysis (QSRA) and Quantitative Cost Risk Analysis (QCRA) for mega complex projects!					</div>
				
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									<div class="elementor-tab-title elementor-tab-mobile-title" aria-selected="false" data-tab="2" role="tab" tabindex="-1" aria-controls="elementor-tab-content-1812" aria-expanded="false">Standard Mind Maps</div>
					<div id="elementor-tab-content-1812" class="elementor-tab-content elementor-clearfix" data-tab="2" role="tabpanel" aria-labelledby="elementor-tab-title-1812" tabindex="0" hidden="hidden"><p>We will create your mind map from you document or draft image/video or list of deliverables.  Generating mind map from idea, linking topics adding icons and pictures. <span style="font-size: 1rem;">You can send us the excel or csv file.</span></p><p>How it works?</p><p>Give us your idea, we will develop the mind map and get back to you for review and incorporating your comments. W<span style="font-size: 1rem;">e will create up to ten (10) main topics, ten (10) subtopics for each main topic and five (5) topics for subtopics. Three level of mind map topics. </span><span style="font-size: 1rem;">Approx. eight (8) to ten (10) hours of work. </span></p></div>
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					<div id="elementor-tab-content-1813" class="elementor-tab-content elementor-clearfix" data-tab="3" role="tabpanel" aria-labelledby="elementor-tab-title-1813" tabindex="0" hidden="hidden"><p>We will create your mind map from you document or draft image/video or list of deliverables.  Generating mind map from idea, linking topics adding icons and pictures. You can send us the excel or csv file.</p><p>How it works?</p><p>Give us your idea, we will develop the mind map and get back to you for review and incorporating your comments. We will create up to ten (10) main topics, ten (10) subtopics for each main topic and five (5) topics for subtopics. Five (5) level of mind map topics. Linking topics, generating word document. creating activities from mind map.  <span style="font-size: 1rem;">Approx. fifteen (15) to twenty (20) hours of work. </span><span style="font-size: 1rem;">Contact us to discuss </span></p></div>
									<div class="elementor-tab-title elementor-tab-mobile-title" aria-selected="false" data-tab="4" role="tab" tabindex="-1" aria-controls="elementor-tab-content-1814" aria-expanded="false">Customized Solution</div>
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		<title>Integrated Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis (IRA). Why? 5 visuals explain it!</title>
		<link>https://www.gleeym.com/2020/03/12/ira/</link>
					<comments>https://www.gleeym.com/2020/03/12/ira/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[mindmap]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 12 Mar 2020 15:42:02 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Cost Risk Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Monte Carlo Simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Project Risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Schedule Risk Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cost]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Integrated Cost Schedule Risk Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Quantitative]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Schedule]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.gleeym.com/?p=1423</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Summary In Oil &#38; Gas industry projects are always complex whether onshore or offshore. Remote locations, site access, communities, resource constraints and long lead items (LLI), etc. can be challenging to execute the project. Performed schedule and cost risk analysis with uncertainty using Monte Carlo simulation for Condensate Process and Storage Facility Project.  Developing a [&#8230;]]]></description>
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					<h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">Summary</h2>				</div>
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									<p style="text-align: justify;">In <strong>Oil</strong> &amp; <strong>Gas</strong> <strong>industry</strong> <strong>projects</strong> are always <strong>complex</strong> whether <strong>onshore</strong> or <strong>offshore</strong>. Remote locations, site access, communities, <strong>resource</strong> constraints and long lead items (LLI), etc. can be <strong>challenging</strong> to execute the <strong>project</strong>. Performed <strong>sched</strong><strong>ule</strong> and <strong>cost</strong> <strong>risk</strong> analysis with <strong>uncertainty</strong> using <strong>Monte Carlo</strong> <strong>simulation</strong> for <strong>Condensate</strong> <strong>Process</strong> and <strong>Storage</strong> <strong>Facility</strong> <strong>Project</strong>. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">Developing a <strong>schedule</strong> <strong>model</strong> for a level-I <strong>schedule</strong> is challenging and time-consuming. Then level-II &amp; level-III <strong>schedule</strong> <strong>models</strong> will take more time and effort. After <strong>developing</strong> the <strong>model</strong>, it is a common understanding to use &#8220;<strong>index</strong> <strong>finger</strong>&#8221; to run <strong>simulations</strong> and that&#8217;s it. Although it&#8217;s required to run <strong>simulations</strong> many times to <strong>analyze</strong> the <strong>data</strong> and spread of the <strong>distribution</strong>. Adding time-dependent <strong>cost</strong> plays an important role in displaying the <strong>Schedule</strong> &#8211;<strong>cost</strong> Joint confident level (JCL). </p><p style="text-align: justify;">It is more challenging when <strong>schedule</strong> using different <strong>calendars</strong> and assign <strong>weather</strong> <strong>probabilistic</strong> <strong>calendar</strong> to one specific <strong>activity</strong>. <strong>Developing</strong> a <strong>schedule</strong> and <strong>cost</strong> <strong>stochastic</strong> <strong>model</strong> for <strong>risk analysis</strong> using <strong>Monte Carlo</strong> <strong>simulation</strong> requires time to work with key <strong>stakeholders</strong> including planners. Activity links also play a vital role in output.</p><h3>visit <strong><a href="http://www.gleeym.com/qra">www.gleeym.com/qra</a></strong> for more details</h3>								</div>
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					<h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">Keywords</h2>				</div>
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									<p>Oil &amp; Gas, Condensate, Processing Facility, Schedule, Cost, Level -1 Schedule, JCL, Risk, Risk Register, Quantitative, Qualitative, Quantitative Schedule Risk Analysis (QSRA), Quantitative Cost Risk Analysis (QCRA), Integrated Cost &amp; Schedule Risk Analysis (IRA), Probability distribution, Cumulative probability Distribution, Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) , Iteration, Uncertainty, Data, Data Analysis, data gathering, Calendar, Construction, Engineering, procurement, FEED, Resources, Resource Risk, </p>								</div>
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					<h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">Project Schedule for Condensate Storage Facility</h2>				</div>
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									<p style="text-align: justify;">Schedule risk analysis (SRA) helps to analyze the uncertainty in the project schedule using Monte Carlo Simulation. Deterministic schedule duration and finish date don’t provide enough information to answer the following questions:</p><ol><li>What is the probability of completing the project on the target date?</li><li>What if the predecessor of an activity finishes late?</li><li>What is the eighty (80%) chance of finishing the project?</li></ol><p>SCR scope is:</p><ol><li>Schedule Risk Analysis (SRA) to analyze uncertainty</li><li>Correlating the activities</li><li>Probabilistic Branching</li></ol><div> </div><p>Level &#8211; I schedule is required to perform cost and schedule risk analysis during the feasibility or initial stage of the project. Level &#8211; I schedule is given with cost estimates below:</p>								</div>
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										<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="593" height="503" src="https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Schedule.jpg" class="attachment-large size-large wp-image-1426" alt="Level Schedule for Integrated cost and schedule risk analysis. www.gleeym.com" srcset="https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Schedule.jpg 593w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Schedule-300x254.jpg 300w" sizes="(max-width: 593px) 100vw, 593px" />											<figcaption class="widget-image-caption wp-caption-text">Pic 1 - level - I Schedule</figcaption>
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									<p style="text-align: justify;">uncertainty to project activity can be a result of lack of information, sudden market up and down, inflation and inaccurate estimation etc.&nbsp;</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Following risk events has been identified after risk workshop with key stakeholders. risk management is an iterative process and new risks are identified during the complete project life cycle.&nbsp; List of identified risk is:</p>
<p></p>								</div>
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										<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="800" height="133" src="https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Schedule-Risk.jpg" class="attachment-large size-large wp-image-1434" alt="" srcset="https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Schedule-Risk.jpg 857w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Schedule-Risk-300x50.jpg 300w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Schedule-Risk-768x128.jpg 768w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Schedule-Risk-600x100.jpg 600w" sizes="(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px" />											<figcaption class="widget-image-caption wp-caption-text">Pic 2 - Schedule Risk</figcaption>
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										<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="800" height="138" src="https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Cost-Risk.jpg" class="attachment-large size-large wp-image-1433" alt="Cos risk - www.gleeym.com" srcset="https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Cost-Risk.jpg 859w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Cost-Risk-300x52.jpg 300w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Cost-Risk-768x132.jpg 768w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Cost-Risk-600x103.jpg 600w" sizes="(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px" />											<figcaption class="widget-image-caption wp-caption-text">Pic 3 - Cost Risk</figcaption>
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									<p style="text-align: justify;">Cost and schedule risk analysis is performed using Monte Carlo simulation. cost and schedule risks are linked to activities. Activities are correlated to avoid merge biased. It is very important to re-run the simulation and visualize the result. Before running simulation perform checking:</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">1- Schedule activity relationship and linkage.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">2- Check for any soft and hard constraint.&nbsp;</p>
<p>3- validate cost estimate.</p>
<p>4- Resource allocation, resource over allocation and resource leveling.</p>
<p>5- Project calendar(s) and linking of calendar to project activities.</p>
<p>6- It is recommended to perform DCMA 14 points analysis to validate the schedule.</p>
<p>Results are:</p>								</div>
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										<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="592" height="394" src="https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Duration-1.jpg" class="attachment-large size-large wp-image-1446" alt="Probability Density Chart - www.gleeym.com" srcset="https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Duration-1.jpg 592w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Duration-1-300x200.jpg 300w" sizes="(max-width: 592px) 100vw, 592px" />											<figcaption class="widget-image-caption wp-caption-text">Pic 4 - Quantitative Schedule Risk Analysis Results</figcaption>
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										<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="578" height="383" src="https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Cost.jpg" class="attachment-large size-large wp-image-1445" alt="S curve - ww.gleeym.com" srcset="https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Cost.jpg 578w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Cost-300x199.jpg 300w" sizes="(max-width: 578px) 100vw, 578px" />											<figcaption class="widget-image-caption wp-caption-text">Pic 5 - Quantitative Cost Schedule Risk Analysis Results</figcaption>
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						<div class="elementor-element elementor-element-09b0793 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor" data-id="09b0793" data-element_type="widget" data-settings="{&quot;ekit_we_effect_on&quot;:&quot;none&quot;}" data-widget_type="text-editor.default">
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									<div id="rso" data-async-context="query:joint%20cost%20and%20schedule%20confidence%20level"><div class="bkWMgd"><div class="g mnr-c g-blk" lang="en-CA" data-hveid="CAoQAA" data-ved="2ahUKEwiZ8YPHvpXoAhUYCs0KHaEyBzMQjDYoAHoECAoQAA"><div class="kp-blk c2xzTb Wnoohf OJXvsb"><div class="xpdopen"><div class="ifM9O"><h2 class="bNg8Rb"><b style="font-size: 16px;">Joint Confidence Level</b><span style="font-size: 16px;"> (JCL) is an integrated uncertainty analysis of   joint </span><b style="font-size: 16px;">cost, schedule, uncertainty and risk</b><span style="font-size: 16px;">. It helps to visualize schedule and cost results to make decision under uncertainty. </span></h2></div></div></div></div></div></div>								</div>
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															<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="571" height="354" src="https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/JCL.jpg" class="attachment-large size-large wp-image-1457" alt="Joint Confidence level for cost and schedule - ww.gleeym.com" srcset="https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/JCL.jpg 571w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/JCL-300x186.jpg 300w" sizes="(max-width: 571px) 100vw, 571px" />															</div>
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					<h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">Conclusion</h2>				</div>
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									<p style="text-align: justify;">Integrated Cost and Schedule Risk (IRA) is performed to analyze the complete project scenario as a whole with associated uncertainty and risk. It also helps to validate the project estimates and budget. It also useful to calculate contingency reserves to manage risks.</p>								</div>
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					<h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">Thank You</h2>				</div>
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									<p>@RISK</p>								</div>
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		]]></content:encoded>
					
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		<item>
		<title>Quantitative Cost and schedule Risk (QCRA, QSRA) Modelling of Weather event.</title>
		<link>https://www.gleeym.com/2020/02/06/qraw/</link>
					<comments>https://www.gleeym.com/2020/02/06/qraw/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[mindmap]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 06 Feb 2020 16:35:02 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Project Risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Schedule Risk Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cost Risk Analysis]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.gleeym.com/?p=1210</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Introduction Tough, rigid, and uncertain conditions ground and environmental conditions in a remote location can be treacherous. Weather calamity can be a known-unknown or unknown &#8211; unknown event with huge impact. Generally, quantitative cost &#38; schedule and Cost (QSRA &#38; QCRA) model are developed for catastrophic events like Hurricane, Tornado and flood etc. Case Study [&#8230;]]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[		<div data-elementor-type="wp-post" data-elementor-id="1210" class="elementor elementor-1210" data-elementor-post-type="post">
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					<h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">Introduction</h2>				</div>
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									<p style="text-align: justify;">Tough, rigid, and uncertain conditions ground and environmental conditions in a remote location can be treacherous. Weather calamity can be a known-unknown or unknown &#8211; unknown event with huge impact.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">Generally, quantitative cost &amp; schedule and Cost (QSRA &amp; QCRA) model are developed for catastrophic events like Hurricane, Tornado and flood etc.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">Case Study &#8211; simulating Flash flood what if scenarios Gas Processing Facility project in a difficult terrain.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">One possible threat is “flash food”. That can be a result of a heavy rains etc.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Biggest concern</strong> is:</p><p style="text-align: justify;">1- What if flash flood hit the project site and the access road to the Gas processing Facility?</p><p style="text-align: justify;">2- What will be the impact to project schedule and cost?</p><p style="text-align: justify;">Developed quantitative cost &amp; schedule (QCRA, QSRA) uncertainty and risk model to analyze the flash flood impact. A small event can be disaster in seconds.</p>								</div>
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					<h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">Schedule</h2>				</div>
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										<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="800" height="93" src="https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Schedule-Image-1024x119.jpg" class="attachment-large size-large wp-image-1218" alt="" srcset="https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Schedule-Image-1024x119.jpg 1024w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Schedule-Image-300x35.jpg 300w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Schedule-Image-768x89.jpg 768w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Schedule-Image-1536x178.jpg 1536w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Schedule-Image-600x70.jpg 600w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Schedule-Image.jpg 1872w" sizes="(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px" />											<figcaption class="widget-image-caption wp-caption-text">Pic 1 - Project Level 1 Schedule -Subproject</figcaption>
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					<h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">Resources</h2>				</div>
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										<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="756" height="71" src="https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Resource-1.jpg" class="attachment-large size-large wp-image-1223" alt="" srcset="https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Resource-1.jpg 756w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Resource-1-300x28.jpg 300w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Resource-1-600x56.jpg 600w" sizes="(max-width: 756px) 100vw, 756px" />											<figcaption class="widget-image-caption wp-caption-text">Pic 2 - Resources </figcaption>
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					<h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">Scenario</h2>				</div>
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									<p>Access road is critical to establish Gas processing facility. As it&#8217;s in mountain terrain, the possibility of flash flood is quite obvious during summer. Considered, flash flood will hit and cause a delay of one (1) week from May to September. </p>								</div>
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					<h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">Uncertainity and Weather Risk</h2>				</div>
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									<p>Uncertainty is added to project activities because of lack of information during project beginning. Furthermore, weather risk is added to cater the impact of flash flood using Monte Carlo Simulation.</p><p>Results can be beneficial to evaluate the risk further and propose option for risk mitigation. Cost is the key factor and in Oil &amp; Gas demonstration of As low As Reasonable Practicable (ALARP) is mandatory for high and medium risks. </p><p> </p>								</div>
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					<h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">Results</h2>				</div>
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									<p>First Monte Carlo Simulation is performed by assigning uncertainty to activities. Initial planned cost is estimated $ 1.536 M. Cost with Uncertainty and weather risk is:</p>								</div>
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										<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="800" height="511" src="https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/GAs-TimeScaled-Data.jpg" class="attachment-large size-large wp-image-1211" alt="" srcset="https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/GAs-TimeScaled-Data.jpg 903w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/GAs-TimeScaled-Data-300x192.jpg 300w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/GAs-TimeScaled-Data-768x491.jpg 768w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/GAs-TimeScaled-Data-600x383.jpg 600w" sizes="(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px" />											<figcaption class="widget-image-caption wp-caption-text">Pic 3 - TimeScaled cost After Monte Carlo Simulation</figcaption>
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					<h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default"><br>References</h2>				</div>
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									<p>Palisade @RISK</p>								</div>
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									<p>Softvative Inc.</p>								</div>
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						Quantitative Risk Analysis					</h2>
				
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						GleeyM Offer services to identify risks and perform Quantitative Schedule Risk Analysis (QSRA) and Quantitative Cost Risk Analysis (QCRA) for mega complex projects!					</div>
				
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									<div id="elementor-tab-title-1082" class="elementor-tab-title elementor-tab-desktop-title" aria-selected="false" data-tab="2" role="tab" tabindex="-1" aria-controls="elementor-tab-content-1082" aria-expanded="false">Standard Mind Maps</div>
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					<div id="elementor-tab-content-1081" class="elementor-tab-content elementor-clearfix" data-tab="1" role="tabpanel" aria-labelledby="elementor-tab-title-1081" tabindex="0" hidden="false"><p>We will create your mind map from you document or draft image/video or list of deliverables.  You can send us the excel or csv file. In Basic Mind Map, we will create up to six (6) main topics, ten (10) subtopics for each main topic. Approx. three (3) to four (4) hours of work. </p></div>
									<div class="elementor-tab-title elementor-tab-mobile-title" aria-selected="false" data-tab="2" role="tab" tabindex="-1" aria-controls="elementor-tab-content-1082" aria-expanded="false">Standard Mind Maps</div>
					<div id="elementor-tab-content-1082" class="elementor-tab-content elementor-clearfix" data-tab="2" role="tabpanel" aria-labelledby="elementor-tab-title-1082" tabindex="0" hidden="hidden"><p>We will create your mind map from you document or draft image/video or list of deliverables.  Generating mind map from idea, linking topics adding icons and pictures. <span style="font-size: 1rem;">You can send us the excel or csv file.</span></p><p>How it works?</p><p>Give us your idea, we will develop the mind map and get back to you for review and incorporating your comments. W<span style="font-size: 1rem;">e will create up to ten (10) main topics, ten (10) subtopics for each main topic and five (5) topics for subtopics. Three level of mind map topics. </span><span style="font-size: 1rem;">Approx. eight (8) to ten (10) hours of work. </span></p></div>
									<div class="elementor-tab-title elementor-tab-mobile-title" aria-selected="false" data-tab="3" role="tab" tabindex="-1" aria-controls="elementor-tab-content-1083" aria-expanded="false">Pro Mind Maps</div>
					<div id="elementor-tab-content-1083" class="elementor-tab-content elementor-clearfix" data-tab="3" role="tabpanel" aria-labelledby="elementor-tab-title-1083" tabindex="0" hidden="hidden"><p>We will create your mind map from you document or draft image/video or list of deliverables.  Generating mind map from idea, linking topics adding icons and pictures. You can send us the excel or csv file.</p><p>How it works?</p><p>Give us your idea, we will develop the mind map and get back to you for review and incorporating your comments. We will create up to ten (10) main topics, ten (10) subtopics for each main topic and five (5) topics for subtopics. Five (5) level of mind map topics. Linking topics, generating word document. creating activities from mind map.  <span style="font-size: 1rem;">Approx. fifteen (15) to twenty (20) hours of work. </span><span style="font-size: 1rem;">Contact us to discuss </span></p></div>
									<div class="elementor-tab-title elementor-tab-mobile-title" aria-selected="false" data-tab="4" role="tab" tabindex="-1" aria-controls="elementor-tab-content-1084" aria-expanded="false">Customized Solution</div>
					<div id="elementor-tab-content-1084" class="elementor-tab-content elementor-clearfix" data-tab="4" role="tabpanel" aria-labelledby="elementor-tab-title-1084" tabindex="0" hidden="hidden"><p>We offer customized solution like, project or business planning, problem solving, concept maps, process flow diagrams and facilitating workshops with the stakeholders. Contact us to discuss more.</p></div>
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		<post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">1210</post-id>	</item>
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		<title>Digital Risk Analysis using Monte Carlo Simulation using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS)</title>
		<link>https://www.gleeym.com/2019/10/24/drm/</link>
					<comments>https://www.gleeym.com/2019/10/24/drm/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[mindmap]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 24 Oct 2019 16:15:16 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Project Risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Schedule Risk Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cost Risk Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Integrated Cost Schedule Risk Analysis]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.gleeym.com/?p=990</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Questions: What is Digital Risk Management? Why Schedule for Agile environment? How Monte Carlos Simulation will help to answer the question and concerns of key stakeholders. Digital World: Digital electronics provides the basis for fourth industrial revolution or second (2nd) machine age. It is evolving and following “Morse Law” and expanding exponentially. Computing power is also growing substantially to provide support in planning, [&#8230;]]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[		<div data-elementor-type="wp-post" data-elementor-id="990" class="elementor elementor-990" data-elementor-post-type="post">
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															<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="800" height="400" src="https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/shutterstock_248285317-1200-1200-600-1024x512.jpg" class="attachment-large size-large wp-image-1170" alt="Digital World, 2nd machine age" srcset="https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/shutterstock_248285317-1200-1200-600-1024x512.jpg 1024w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/shutterstock_248285317-1200-1200-600-300x150.jpg 300w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/shutterstock_248285317-1200-1200-600-768x384.jpg 768w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/shutterstock_248285317-1200-1200-600-600x300.jpg 600w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/shutterstock_248285317-1200-1200-600.jpg 1200w" sizes="(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px" />															</div>
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					<h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">Questions:</h2>				</div>
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									<ul><li>What is Digital Risk Management?</li><li>Why Schedule for Agile environment?</li><li>How Monte Carlos Simulation will help to answer the question and concerns of key stakeholders.</li></ul>								</div>
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					<h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">Digital World:</h2>				</div>
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									<p style="text-align: justify;">Digital electronics provides the basis for fourth industrial revolution or second (2nd) machine age. It is evolving and following “Morse Law” and expanding exponentially. Computing power is also growing substantially to provide support in planning, designing, and producing new innovative products either virtually or physically.           </p><p style="text-align: justify;">The combined power of digital electronics (digital) and computing are leading to lively recombinant innovations that are reshaping the business. Word. More and more tech. <span data-start-index="568" data-end-index="576" data-type="Punctuation">Companies are securing a place in</span> the Combined power of digital electronics (digital) and computing are leading to lively recombinant innovations that are reshaping the business world. More and more tech. companies are securing a place in the top 100 among fortune 500 companies.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">Even the integration of virtual (data, data analytics, AI, VR, AR, neural networks) and physical products (robots, drones, 3D printers) is increasing leading to solving very complex problems which were not possible earlier.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">One this is common in digital project that is coding. Scrum, Agile and Kanban are very much integrated for progressive elaboration and developing software development project. Although agility is a major concept in IT project management, but still waterfall with gating review is predominant for program management. Some how for digital projects, interfacing is challenging and require following schedule and cost estimating best practices to avoid pitfalls during execution to avoid program failure.</p>								</div>
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					<h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">Digital Schedule:</h2>				</div>
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									<p style="text-align: justify;">Whether it is waterfall or agile project management, project schedule is utmost to plan and tack project activities.  The Agile project schedule is required to be developed to portray incremental and iterative activities. Define short development please in schedule, i.e., Sprint. Sprint is defined by the available time “time-boxed&#8221; and resources. It will help planner/scheduler to estimate time and cost simultaneously. Velocity helps to measure work completed, planned vs actual, during single Phase or sprint.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">Project schedule drives the project execution. The project often slips their schedules. Schedule delay, for whatever reason, is resulting in losing monetary benefits, unsatisfied management and losing the opportunity to gain potential market share. A delay in executing a single “Story” can cause financial and reputational loss. After creating the schedule, reviewing the schedule with project management team (PMT) is helpful to identify and correct any schedule error.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">It’s best industrial practice to perform project schedule diagnostics. Dissection of schedule using DCMA 14 points schedule inspection criteria is providing schedule’s complete picture. It helps to highlight grey areas and provides recombination for corrective actions. Schedule diagnostics are given below:</p>								</div>
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										<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="796" height="722" src="https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/sCHEDULE-dIAGONSTICS.jpg" class="attachment-large size-large wp-image-1174" alt="GleeyM offers 14 point DCMA Analysis" srcset="https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/sCHEDULE-dIAGONSTICS.jpg 796w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/sCHEDULE-dIAGONSTICS-300x272.jpg 300w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/sCHEDULE-dIAGONSTICS-768x697.jpg 768w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/sCHEDULE-dIAGONSTICS-600x544.jpg 600w" sizes="(max-width: 796px) 100vw, 796px" />											<figcaption class="widget-image-caption wp-caption-text">Pic 1 - Schedule Diagnostics as per 14 - Point Assessment </figcaption>
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					<h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default"><h2>Quantitative Schedule Risk Analysis (QSRA): </h2></h2>				</div>
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									<p style="text-align: justify;">For Quantitative Schedule Risk Analysis (QSRA), need project schedule that presents all necessary activities with resource allocation. Apply activity uncertainty and link risks to an activity. That is enough?</p><p style="text-align: justify;">Certainly not. Completeness and proper activity linkage are important for performing Monte Carlo Simulation. It’s best industrial practice to perform project schedule diagnostics.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">A Quantitative Schedule Risk Analysis (QSRA) uses a probability distribution to run Monte Carlo simulation using key risks to activities. A QSRA is a combination of critical path method (CPM) schedule, risks from risk register and linking risks to activities (risk driver) and statistical distribution to analyze data and predict level of confidence in meeting project’s completion date and duration. It helps to calculate schedule contingency.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">Level 1 schedule contains major milestones and the level of uncertainty in estimating schedule duration is high. The Level-1 schedule is developed based on past experiences and Heuristics assumptions that can be higher or lower, i.e., uncertainty as lack of information or complete picture. Therefore, sensitivity analysis helps to identify the key activities or risks contributing to project delay.  </p><p style="text-align: justify;">The focus of analysis is on but not limited to:</p><ul><li>Uncertainty and risk impact to an activity and overall project duration and finish time.</li><li>What-if schedule will delay by one (1) week or one (1) month?</li><li>Which risk impact most to overall schedule?</li></ul><div> </div><div>Visit:</div><div> </div><div><a href="https://www.gleeym.com/qra/">www.gleeym.com/qra</a></div>								</div>
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					<h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">Quantitative Cost Risk Analysis (QCRA):</h2>				</div>
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									<p style="text-align: justify;">Cost is the main driver for making decisions. It’s the key factor that makes the management happy or unhappy. Business is all about monetary benefits. Class 5 cost estimate is developed during project initiation. Typical ranges for Class 5 cost estimate as per AACE can be ± 50% or ±100%. Uncertainty is high and confidence level is low. Therefore, it is necessary to consider all fixed and variable costs including overheads. Apply uncertainty and risk to model cost using probability distribution.</p>								</div>
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					<h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">Integrated Cost schedule Risk Analysis (IRA):</h2>				</div>
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									<p style="text-align: justify;">In Integrated cost, schedule risk analysis, schedule is developed with time-phased cost to analyze the combine effect of risk on schedule and cost simultaneously. After running the simulation, joint confidence level for cost and schedule can be presented for decision making and specifying contingency for both schedule and cost.  </p>								</div>
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					<h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">Digital Risk Management:</h2>				</div>
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									<p style="text-align: justify;">Risk management, especially the quantitative risk analysis is missing part in software project development. More focus on reactive approach that is issue and incident management than a proactive approach risk management. In recent days, as technology evolving and companies are transitioning to digital world, i.e. It’s essential to perform quantitative risk management for digital transformation. Throughout the software development life cycle (SDLC). There are many sources of uncertainties and risks that can lead to schedule delays and cost overrun.</p>								</div>
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										<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="690" height="641" src="https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Digital-Risk-Management-2.png" class="attachment-large size-large wp-image-1180" alt="" srcset="https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Digital-Risk-Management-2.png 690w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Digital-Risk-Management-2-300x279.png 300w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Digital-Risk-Management-2-600x557.png 600w" sizes="(max-width: 690px) 100vw, 690px" />											<figcaption class="widget-image-caption wp-caption-text">Pic 2 - Digital Risk Management Mind Map</figcaption>
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					<h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">Case Study</h2>				</div>
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									<p style="text-align: justify;">There can be many apparent or hidden sources of risks like, bleeding edge technology, hardware, obsolete technology, technology interfacing, inadequate resources, software configuration, security issues, patches, and digital platforms etc.</p><p> </p><p>Digital project Case study:</p><p> </p><p>Project schedule (level 1) is given below:</p>								</div>
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									<table><tbody><tr><td width="56"><p><strong>S. No.</strong></p></td><td width="255"><p><strong>Schedule</strong></p></td><td width="62"><p><strong>Duration</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td width="56"><p><strong>1</strong></p></td><td width="255"><p>Planning</p></td><td width="62"><p>10</p></td></tr><tr><td width="56"><p><strong>2</strong></p></td><td width="255"><p>Development</p></td><td width="62"><p>20</p></td></tr><tr><td width="56"><p><strong>3</strong></p></td><td width="255"><p>Testing &amp; Quality Assurance</p></td><td width="62"><p>15</p></td></tr><tr><td width="56"><p><strong>4</strong></p></td><td width="255"><p>Production Development</p></td><td width="62"><p>12</p></td></tr><tr><td width="56"><p><strong>5</strong></p></td><td width="255"><p>Validation</p></td><td width="62"><p>5</p></td></tr><tr><td width="56"><p><strong>6</strong></p></td><td width="255"><p>Go-live</p></td><td width="62"><p>0</p></td></tr></tbody></table>								</div>
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									<p style="text-align: justify;">Time-phased cost has allocated to the activities. Resources are estimated as follows:</p>								</div>
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									<table><tbody><tr><td width="56"><p><strong>S. No.</strong></p></td><td width="255"><p><strong>Schedule</strong></p></td><td width="68"><p><strong>Unit (%)</strong></p></td><td width="92"><p><strong>Rate /hr ($)</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td width="56"><p><strong>1</strong></p></td><td width="255"><p>Project Manager</p></td><td width="68"><p>100 %</p></td><td width="92"><p>$ 80</p></td></tr><tr><td width="56"><p><strong>2</strong></p></td><td width="255"><p>Developers</p></td><td width="68"><p>300 %</p></td><td width="92"><p>$ 60</p></td></tr><tr><td width="56"><p><strong>3</strong></p></td><td width="255"><p>Testing Team</p></td><td width="68"><p>400 %</p></td><td width="92"><p>$ 40</p></td></tr><tr><td width="56"><p><strong>4</strong></p></td><td width="255"><p>PMT</p></td><td width="68"><p>400 %</p></td><td width="92"><p>$ 50</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>.</p>								</div>
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									<p style="text-align: justify;">Uncertainties are calculated as per expert judgement and similar project experience:</p>								</div>
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									<table><tbody><tr><td width="56"><p><strong>S. No.</strong></p></td><td width="255"><p><strong>Schedule</strong></p></td><td width="95"><p><strong>Min. Duration</strong></p></td><td width="95"><p><strong>Mean Duration</strong></p></td><td width="95"><p><strong>Max. Duration</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td width="56"><p><strong>1</strong></p></td><td width="255"><p>Planning</p></td><td width="95"><p>90 %</p></td><td width="95"><p>100 %</p></td><td width="95"><p>150 %</p></td></tr><tr><td width="56"><p><strong>2</strong></p></td><td width="255"><p>Development</p></td><td width="95"><p>90 %</p></td><td width="95"><p>100 %</p></td><td width="95"><p>150 %</p></td></tr><tr><td width="56"><p><strong>3</strong></p></td><td width="255"><p>Testing &amp; Quality Assurance</p></td><td width="95"><p>90 %</p></td><td width="95"><p>100 %</p></td><td width="95"><p>150 %</p></td></tr><tr><td width="56"><p><strong>4</strong></p></td><td width="255"><p>Production Development</p></td><td width="95"><p>90 %</p></td><td width="95"><p>100 %</p></td><td width="95"><p>150 %</p></td></tr><tr><td width="56"><p><strong>5</strong></p></td><td width="255"><p>Validation</p></td><td width="95"><p>90 %</p></td><td width="95"><p>100 %</p></td><td width="95"><p>150 %</p></td></tr><tr><td width="56"><p><strong>6</strong></p></td><td width="255"><p>Go-live</p></td><td width="95"><p>0</p></td><td width="95"><p>0</p></td><td width="95"><p>0</p></td></tr></tbody></table>								</div>
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										<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="800" height="141" src="https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Project-Schedule-2-1024x180.png" class="attachment-large size-large wp-image-1190" alt="" srcset="https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Project-Schedule-2-1024x180.png 1024w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Project-Schedule-2-300x53.png 300w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Project-Schedule-2-768x135.png 768w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Project-Schedule-2-600x105.png 600w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Project-Schedule-2.png 1186w" sizes="(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px" />											<figcaption class="widget-image-caption wp-caption-text">Pic 3 - Project Schedule with Uncertainties</figcaption>
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									<p style="text-align: justify;">Analyzing different scenarios provide alternative to make a decision. Schedule with Uncertainties. Elaborate Uncertainty and Risk with respect to different standards or guidelines will help to understand these two terms. Also, need to understand the relationship between these two terms.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">According to the PMI Practice Standard for Project Risk Management:</p><p style="text-align: justify;">A risk is an uncertain event or condition, if it occurs, has a positive or negative effect on a project’s objectives.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">According to ISO 73:2009: 1.1 Risk</p><p style="text-align: justify;">Effect of Uncertainties on Objectives</p><p style="text-align: justify;">Note: 5 – Uncertainty is the state, even partial, of deficiency of information related to, understanding or knowledge of, an event, its consequence, or likelihood.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">Uncertainty can be known – Known (e.g., During holidays there will be a low worker’s productivity). Know unknown, know the uncertainty, but the impact is unknown (e.g. Periodic Union strikes during a month). Unknown – Unknown (e.g., flood, hurricane where it is difficult to predict the exact timing and overall impact.).</p>								</div>
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					<h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">Example:</h2>				</div>
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									<ul><li>Activity A &#8211; Duration 10 Days</li><li>Activity B &#8211; Duration 5 Days</li><li>Activity C &#8211; Duration 12 Days</li></ul><p style="text-align: justify;">These are the estimated values. The question is, what-if a required resource will not be available for three (3) days? To cater to these uncertainties, three-point estimates are being used, i.e. Optimistic, Most Likely and Pessimistic. The uncertainty should not be heuristics. Assumptions made should be validated.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">Also, currency rate fluctuation and raw material prices are a good example of uncertainty.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">Risk is a product of probability X impact, i.e., P X I</p><p style="text-align: justify;">Example:</p><p style="text-align: justify;">Like late delivery of material at the site</p><p style="text-align: justify;">or the Unavailability of a skilled worker.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">Risk must be defined by using Risk meta language, i.e., Cause – Risk – Impact</p><p style="text-align: justify;">Because of many concurrent projects in an area (cause), Skilled worker might not be available (Risk) leading to schedule delays, cost impact, and poor quality (effect or impact)</p>								</div>
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					<h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">Project Risks</h2>				</div>
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									<p style="text-align: justify;">Risk identification in the early stage of project is important. It is very important to link only relevant risks to project schedule and cost. A list of five (5) identified risks are:</p>								</div>
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										<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="800" height="113" src="https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Risk-2-1024x145.png" class="attachment-large size-large wp-image-1189" alt="GleeYM uses Riskyproject" srcset="https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Risk-2-1024x145.png 1024w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Risk-2-300x43.png 300w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Risk-2-768x109.png 768w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Risk-2-600x85.png 600w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Risk-2.png 1094w" sizes="(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px" />											<figcaption class="widget-image-caption wp-caption-text">Pic 4 - project Risks</figcaption>
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									<p style="text-align: justify;">In quantitative analysis, the impact is a calculated value based on how it effects different project parameters such as schedule, finish time, cost etc. and is not equal to the input impacts. The underlying methodology used for calculating both impact and scores is based on sensitivity analysis using Spearman Rank Order correlation coefficients. When scores or impacts are below 1%, they are often rounded down to 0. In practical terms, it means that the three risks have only an extremely small impact on your project schedule [1].</p>								</div>
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					<h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">Results After Monte Carlo Simulation</h2>				</div>
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										<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="800" height="479" src="https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Baseline-Comparison-2-1.png" class="attachment-large size-large wp-image-1193" alt="Quantitative Schedule Risk Analysis with Baseline Comparison" srcset="https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Baseline-Comparison-2-1.png 854w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Baseline-Comparison-2-1-300x180.png 300w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Baseline-Comparison-2-1-768x460.png 768w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Baseline-Comparison-2-1-600x359.png 600w" sizes="(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px" />											<figcaption class="widget-image-caption wp-caption-text">Pic 5 - Baseline Comparison, Current Schedule Baseline with Uncertainties and Risk </figcaption>
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										<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="800" height="479" src="https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Cost-Comparison-2.png" class="attachment-large size-large wp-image-1195" alt="Quantitative Cost Risk Analysis and Baseline Comparison" srcset="https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Cost-Comparison-2.png 854w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Cost-Comparison-2-300x180.png 300w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Cost-Comparison-2-768x460.png 768w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Cost-Comparison-2-600x359.png 600w" sizes="(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px" />											<figcaption class="widget-image-caption wp-caption-text">Pic 6 - Cost Baselines Comparisons - Current Schedule Baseline with Uncertainties and Risk</figcaption>
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										<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="662" height="677" src="https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Scatter-Plot.png" class="attachment-large size-large wp-image-1197" alt="Joint Confider Level for Schedule and Cost" srcset="https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Scatter-Plot.png 662w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Scatter-Plot-293x300.png 293w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Scatter-Plot-600x614.png 600w" sizes="(max-width: 662px) 100vw, 662px" />											<figcaption class="widget-image-caption wp-caption-text">Pic 7 - Joint Confidence Level (JCL), Cost and Schedule</figcaption>
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										<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="800" height="285" src="https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Dashbaord-Results-2-1024x365.png" class="attachment-large size-large wp-image-1200" alt="" srcset="https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Dashbaord-Results-2-1024x365.png 1024w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Dashbaord-Results-2-300x107.png 300w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Dashbaord-Results-2-768x274.png 768w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Dashbaord-Results-2-600x214.png 600w, https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Dashbaord-Results-2.png 1053w" sizes="(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px" />											<figcaption class="widget-image-caption wp-caption-text">Pic 8 - Simulation Overall Result Comparisons</figcaption>
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									<p style="text-align: justify;">Monte Carlo simulation helps to specify schedule and cost contingencies. Percentage (%) allocation of cost contingency is varied industry to industry. Rule of thumb is 10%. However, between 10 % to 20% is usually considered. 50% chance is taking as an actual schedule completion date. 80% is taking as contingency reserves. 80% to 100% is taken as management reserves. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">It is important that specify mitigation actions and try to avoid risk or mitigate the risk by making changes in schedule, cost and other estimates.</p><blockquote><p><strong>Schedule and cost baselines should not be defined without risk analysis.</strong></p></blockquote>								</div>
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					<h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">References:</h2>				</div>
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									<ol><li>Intaver Institute Inc. – <a href="https://www.intaver.com">intaver.com</a></li><li><a href="https://www.apm.org.uk/resources/find-a-resource/agile-project-management/glossary/">https://www.apm.org.uk/resources/find-a-resource/agile-project-management/glossary/</a></li><li><a href="https://tensix.com/book-an-introduction-to-the-dcma-14-point-assessment/">The DCMA 14-Point assessment</a> – by DCMA (Defense Contract Management Agency)</li></ol>								</div>
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