Introduction
Tough, rigid, and uncertain conditions ground and environmental conditions in a remote location can be treacherous. Weather calamity can be a known-unknown or unknown – unknown event with huge impact.
Generally, quantitative cost & schedule and Cost (QSRA & QCRA) model are developed for catastrophic events like Hurricane, Tornado and flood etc.
Case Study – simulating Flash flood what if scenarios Gas Processing Facility project in a difficult terrain.
One possible threat is “flash food”. That can be a result of a heavy rains etc.
Biggest concern is:
1- What if flash flood hit the project site and the access road to the Gas processing Facility?
2- What will be the impact to project schedule and cost?
Developed quantitative cost & schedule (QCRA, QSRA) uncertainty and risk model to analyze the flash flood impact. A small event can be disaster in seconds.
Schedule
Resources
Scenario
Access road is critical to establish Gas processing facility. As it’s in mountain terrain, the possibility of flash flood is quite obvious during summer. Considered, flash flood will hit and cause a delay of one (1) week from May to September.
Uncertainity and Weather Risk
Uncertainty is added to project activities because of lack of information during project beginning. Furthermore, weather risk is added to cater the impact of flash flood using Monte Carlo Simulation.
Results can be beneficial to evaluate the risk further and propose option for risk mitigation. Cost is the key factor and in Oil & Gas demonstration of As low As Reasonable Practicable (ALARP) is mandatory for high and medium risks.
Results
First Monte Carlo Simulation is performed by assigning uncertainty to activities. Initial planned cost is estimated $ 1.536 M. Cost with Uncertainty and weather risk is:
References
Palisade @RISK
Softvative Inc.
Quantitative Risk Analysis
Workshop Facilitation
We will create your mind map from you document or draft image/video or list of deliverable. You can send us the excel or csv file. In Basic Mind Map, we will create up to six (6) main topics, ten (10) sub topics for each main topic. Approx. three (3) to four (4) hours of work.
We will create your mind map from you document or draft image/video or list of deliverable. Generating mind map from idea, linking topics adding icons and pictures. You can send us the excel or csv file.
How it works?
Give us your idea, We will develop the mind map and get back to you for review and incorporating your comments. We will create up to ten (10) main topics, ten (10) sub topics for each main topic and five (5) topics for sub topics. Three level of mind map topics. Approx. eight (8) to ten (10) hours of work.
We will create your mind map from you document or draft image/video or list of deliverable. Generating mind map from idea, linking topics adding icons and pictures. You can send us the excel or csv file.
How it works?
Give us your idea, We will develop the mind map and get back to you for review and incorporating your comments. We will create up to ten (10) main topics, ten (10) sub topics for each main topic and five (5) topics for sub topics. Five (5) level of mind map topics. Linking topics, generating word document. creating activities from mind map. Approx. fifteen (15) to twenty (20) hours of work. Contact us to discuss
We offer customized solution like, project or business planning, problem solving, concept maps, process flow diagrams and facilitating workshops with the stakeholders. Contact us to discuss more.