Quantitative Cost and schedule Risk (QCRA, QSRA) Modelling of Weather event.

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Introduction

Tough, rigid, and uncertain conditions ground and environmental conditions in a remote location can be treacherous. Weather calamity can be a known-unknown or unknown – unknown event with huge impact.

Generally, quantitative cost & schedule and Cost (QSRA & QCRA) model are developed for catastrophic events like Hurricane, Tornado and flood etc.

Case Study – simulating Flash flood what if scenarios Gas Processing Facility project in a difficult terrain.

One possible threat is “flash food”. That can be a result of a heavy rains etc.

Biggest concern is:

1- What if flash flood hit the project site and the access road to the Gas processing Facility?

2- What will be the impact to project schedule and cost?

Developed quantitative cost & schedule (QCRA, QSRA) uncertainty and risk model to analyze the flash flood impact. A small event can be disaster in seconds.

Schedule

Pic 1 - Project Level 1 Schedule -Subproject

Resources

Pic 2 - Resources

Scenario

Access road is critical to establish Gas processing facility. As it’s in mountain terrain, the possibility of flash flood is quite obvious during summer. Considered, flash flood will hit and cause a delay of one (1) week from May to September. 

Uncertainity and Weather Risk

Uncertainty is added to project activities because of lack of information during project beginning. Furthermore, weather risk is added to cater the impact of flash flood using Monte Carlo Simulation.

Results can be beneficial to evaluate the risk further and propose option for risk mitigation. Cost is the key factor and in Oil & Gas demonstration of As low As Reasonable Practicable (ALARP) is mandatory for high and medium risks. 

 

Results

First Monte Carlo Simulation is performed by assigning uncertainty to activities. Initial planned cost is estimated $ 1.536 M. Cost with Uncertainty and weather risk is:

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Pic 3 - TimeScaled cost After Monte Carlo Simulation


References

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Palisade @RISK

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Softvative Inc.

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