Sensitivity Analysis – GleeYM https://www.gleeym.com GleeYM offers complete risk management , PMO, Mind Mapping, Training and Digital Transformation Servces! Tue, 16 Feb 2021 18:56:01 +0000 en-CA hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.4 https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/cropped-gleelogo-1-1-32x32.png Sensitivity Analysis – GleeYM https://www.gleeym.com 32 32 166212591 Is it important to focus on Access Road Construction for mega Complex remote project? 4 Figures Depict a Complete Story! https://www.gleeym.com/2021/02/16/accessroad/ https://www.gleeym.com/2021/02/16/accessroad/#respond Tue, 16 Feb 2021 18:56:01 +0000 https://www.gleeym.com/?p=2646

Real Estate Development Project - Better way to Envisage Your Project's Future. How? 4 Graphs are Enough to Illustrate!

Keywords

Access road construction, Mega complex project, Construction project, Schedule delay, Cost overrun, Sensitivity analysis, Uncertainty, Risks, Weather, Flash flood, Energy, Oil & Gas, Mining, Monte Carlo simulation, What if analysis, Distribution graph, Cost risk analysis, Risk drivers, Schedule risk analysis, Integrated risk analysis

Summary

Energy and mining projects are complex and mostly being executed in remote areas. Site accessibility, weather, uneven terrain, and mobility are the factors that make it more difficult to execute remote area projects. After asset acquisition and getting all necessary permits, the construction of an access road to actual site area is a topmost priority.

Flash flood is unpredictable and can be showstopper in hilly terrain. Analyzing the impact of flash flood, using Monte Carlo simulation, helps to examine the various scenarios and plan mitigation actions to minimize the risk.

Case Study

The construction of access roads is an extremely important that needs to be done at the right time. Any delay in construction can delay the site access and mobilization of team and equipment for field development, and It also needs to be done with the best equipment and materials available, keeping in mind the specific needs of the client.

Flash Floods are unpredictable. Mostly, water follows its path, but it changes its direction depending upon the water quantity and pressure, etc.

Project Schedule

Level I project schedule is shown in fig. 1:

Level I Schedule developed by Gleeym for schedule and cost risk analysis
Fig. 1- Level 1 Schedule

Uncertainty and Risk

There can be a long list of  risks but considered only three (3) top risks.

  1. Flash Flood – Recurring flash flood from May to Sep to hamper Access Road Construction and Plant site.
  2. Delay in delivery of Bulk Material to site
  3. Unavailability of Skilled Labor

Risks were mapped to the activities along with the uncertainties.

Monte Carlo Simulation

After schedule check, mapping uncertainties and risks to schedule activities ran the Monte Carlo Simulation. The “Distribution Graph” is showing the results for a schedule in fig. 2:

Access Road S curve performed by GleeYM
Fig. 2 - Distribution Graph (S Curve) for a Schedule

With uncertainties and risks, the chances of meeting target date are almost 0%. The distribution graph shows that there will be a 50% (mean) chance that the project will be completed on 22-10-2021 i.e., 57 days.

What about the time-phased cost? The “Distribution Graph” is showing the results for a cost in fig. 3:

Time phase distribution graph for cost by Gleeym
Fig.3 - Distribution Graph (S Curve) for a Cost

With uncertainties and risks, the chances of meeting target estimated costs are almost 3%. The distribution graph shows that there will be 50% (mean) chance that extra cost will be $ 1,445,705. Furthermore, there will be an 80% chance that total project cost will be around $11.72 M.

Probability Cash Flow performed by Gleeym
Fig. 4 - Probabilistic Cash Flow (PCF)

What if to visualize the impact of Flash flood to schedule only? The “Distribution Graph” is showing the impact of Flash flood to a schedule in fig. 5.

Analyzing impact of single risk to a schedule. What if analysis
Fig. 5 - What if Analysis with Flash Flood Risk Only

With only Flash flood risk, the chances of meeting target date are almost 0%. The distribution graph shows that there will be 50% (mean) chance that schedule overrun will be 29 days. Furthermore, there will be an 80% chance that project completion date will be 29-10-2021 i.e., 34 days.

 While access roads can be constructed by any means necessary, it is much more cost-effective to use specialized contractors trained in their construction. Each contractor has specific standards that must be met before they begin any work.

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Conclusion

Access roads are crucial for any oil and gas project, not just for safety but also to allow construction equipment to enter the site, move materials, and complete the project. 

This is a story of a project that will be started out with a big dream and ended with great success. Nothing is easy; everything is challenging, but the results will be rewarding.

Question

Question: What if to build a bridge to over come the impact of a Flash Flood?

 

Answer: I will discuss it in the next article.

 

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]]> https://www.gleeym.com/2021/02/16/accessroad/feed/ 0 2646 1 big reason, why to choose Long Lead Item as a “Focused Activity”? https://www.gleeym.com/2021/01/31/llirisk/ https://www.gleeym.com/2021/01/31/llirisk/#respond Sun, 31 Jan 2021 23:55:47 +0000 https://www.gleeym.com/?p=2154

1 Big Reason, Why To Choose Long Lead Item As A “Focused Activity”?

Keywords

Construction Procurement, Procurement Strategy, Long Lead Item, Gas Process Facility Construction, Sensitivity Analysis, Monte Carlo Analysis, Procurement Risk,  Distribution Graph, Cumulative distribution graph, Quantitative Schedule Risk Analysis, Quantitative Cost Risk Analysis

Summary

In mega complex project, managing risk is a necessity to ensure that your project is not derailed by unexpected events.

The world of construction procurement is a complex one. New processes, regulation, complex supply chain and complicated standards are popping up rapidly, making it difficult for construction companies and even for clients to stay on top for smooth execution.

Procurement (including contracts) is a key focus activity, especially the long lead items. Project schedule provides only a deterministic value. What if there is a delay in delivery of Long Lead Items to a site?

The distribution graph is showing, there is only a thirty three percent chance to meet the target date. If the anticipated risks occur, then What will happen? Of course, the construction, pre-commissioning, commissioning, and operations will be delayed. It will not only hamper CAPEX, but OPEX will also be impacted.

Quantitative Schedule Risk Analysis (QSRA)

Quantitative risk analysis is a computer-based method of analyzing the probability of a risk occurring and quantifying its effect on the project. It can be used to estimate expected costs and rate schedules for various projects i.e. Quantitative Schedule Risk Analysis (QSRA) & Quantitative Cost Risk Analysis  (QCRA)

Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) is a set of techniques that helps to prioritize and manage risk within a quantitative project. QRA tools assist decision makers in identifying the most critical risks and cost drivers for their projects, enabling them to make informed decisions about the future course of action.

Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) is the process of determining how likely it is that a particular investment decision will be successful. To do this, you need to quantify the potential risk in your project and assign a probability to each risk.

Procurement of Material and Long Lead Item (LLI) - A Focused Activity

It is important to understand that the quantitative risk assessment process will allow you to determine the level of risk that your project faces. What is the probability of events occurring? How likely are things to go wrong? In order to make sound decisions about strategic direction, you must have accurate information about the risks facing your project. 

A Gas process facility is a mega complex Greenfield construction project. According to the level-I schedule; a deterministic project completion duration is 966 days. After validating schedule, validate the schedule followed by Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). Procurement of Material and long lead item was considered as “Focused Activity.” It’s second main driver after the construction for schedule delay and cost over run.

It’s a common phrase that “Knowing Long lead Items (LLI) early will speed up the construction execution.” It’s nota reality in areal world of executing mega complex projects. There are many factors internal and external that influence timely delivery Long Lead Item (LLI) to site. Few factors are:

  • Design data
  • Purchase Requisition (PR)
  • Purchase Order (PO)
  • Shipment
  • Load and Unloading
  • Damage during shipment
  • Damage during road transportation
  • Insurance
  • Manufacturing location
  • Single source/sole source
  • Long lead Item dates are missing in schedule
  • Various versions of schedule within the project – very common in mega complex projects.
  • Date for delivery at a site
  • Shop drawing submittal
  • Date plus design data
  • Shop drawing approval data
  • Fabrication/manufacturing schedule
  • Fabrication start
  • Quality control, inspection and third party inspections
  • Manufacturing Site visit
  • FAT
  • Fabrication completion
  • Shipping Date
  • SAT
Above all the procurement process time line set by the procurement department should also be known. Normally for a mega project to issue a PO might take six (6) months.
Gleeym offers Quantitative schedule & cost risk analysis using Monte Carlo Simulation.
Fig 1 - A Cumulative Distribution Graph for a Finish Date

A Table -1 is showing percentile, cost and contingency reserved required for making risk-based decision regarding schedule. It’s the management choice to choose P50 or P80 for a cost contingency reserves. 

Table 1 for Schedule contingency reserve
Table 1- Schedule Contingency Reserve
Fig 2- A Cumulative Distribution Graph for a Cost

A Table -2 is showing percentile, cost and contingency reserved required for making risk-based decision regarding cost. It’s the management choice to choose P50 or P80 for a cost contingency reserves.

Cost Contingency Reserve
Table 2 - Cost Contingency Reserve

Conclusion

It’s the management choice to choose P50 or P80 for a contingency reserve. The Organization usually prefers P80. Determine the contingency reverse is the one (1) biggest reason!

During a project start the level of information is low and risk is high. Therefore, it is recommended to run the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) at the beginning of project phase or before gate approval of a previous phase. It will support management to make a decision under uncertainty. A monte Carlo simulation is a requirement for making risk-based decision. It’s not optional!

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