Planning – GleeYM https://www.gleeym.com GleeYM offers complete risk management , PMO, Mind Mapping, Training and Digital Transformation Servces! Sun, 31 Jan 2021 23:55:47 +0000 en-CA hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.4 https://www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/cropped-gleelogo-1-1-32x32.png Planning – GleeYM https://www.gleeym.com 32 32 166212591 1 big reason, why to choose Long Lead Item as a “Focused Activity”? https://www.gleeym.com/2021/01/31/llirisk/ https://www.gleeym.com/2021/01/31/llirisk/#respond Sun, 31 Jan 2021 23:55:47 +0000 https://www.gleeym.com/?p=2154

1 Big Reason, Why To Choose Long Lead Item As A “Focused Activity”?

Keywords

Construction Procurement, Procurement Strategy, Long Lead Item, Gas Process Facility Construction, Sensitivity Analysis, Monte Carlo Analysis, Procurement Risk,  Distribution Graph, Cumulative distribution graph, Quantitative Schedule Risk Analysis, Quantitative Cost Risk Analysis

Summary

In mega complex project, managing risk is a necessity to ensure that your project is not derailed by unexpected events.

The world of construction procurement is a complex one. New processes, regulation, complex supply chain and complicated standards are popping up rapidly, making it difficult for construction companies and even for clients to stay on top for smooth execution.

Procurement (including contracts) is a key focus activity, especially the long lead items. Project schedule provides only a deterministic value. What if there is a delay in delivery of Long Lead Items to a site?

The distribution graph is showing, there is only a thirty three percent chance to meet the target date. If the anticipated risks occur, then What will happen? Of course, the construction, pre-commissioning, commissioning, and operations will be delayed. It will not only hamper CAPEX, but OPEX will also be impacted.

Quantitative Schedule Risk Analysis (QSRA)

Quantitative risk analysis is a computer-based method of analyzing the probability of a risk occurring and quantifying its effect on the project. It can be used to estimate expected costs and rate schedules for various projects i.e. Quantitative Schedule Risk Analysis (QSRA) & Quantitative Cost Risk Analysis  (QCRA)

Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) is a set of techniques that helps to prioritize and manage risk within a quantitative project. QRA tools assist decision makers in identifying the most critical risks and cost drivers for their projects, enabling them to make informed decisions about the future course of action.

Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) is the process of determining how likely it is that a particular investment decision will be successful. To do this, you need to quantify the potential risk in your project and assign a probability to each risk.

Procurement of Material and Long Lead Item (LLI) - A Focused Activity

It is important to understand that the quantitative risk assessment process will allow you to determine the level of risk that your project faces. What is the probability of events occurring? How likely are things to go wrong? In order to make sound decisions about strategic direction, you must have accurate information about the risks facing your project. 

A Gas process facility is a mega complex Greenfield construction project. According to the level-I schedule; a deterministic project completion duration is 966 days. After validating schedule, validate the schedule followed by Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). Procurement of Material and long lead item was considered as “Focused Activity.” It’s second main driver after the construction for schedule delay and cost over run.

It’s a common phrase that “Knowing Long lead Items (LLI) early will speed up the construction execution.” It’s nota reality in areal world of executing mega complex projects. There are many factors internal and external that influence timely delivery Long Lead Item (LLI) to site. Few factors are:

  • Design data
  • Purchase Requisition (PR)
  • Purchase Order (PO)
  • Shipment
  • Load and Unloading
  • Damage during shipment
  • Damage during road transportation
  • Insurance
  • Manufacturing location
  • Single source/sole source
  • Long lead Item dates are missing in schedule
  • Various versions of schedule within the project – very common in mega complex projects.
  • Date for delivery at a site
  • Shop drawing submittal
  • Date plus design data
  • Shop drawing approval data
  • Fabrication/manufacturing schedule
  • Fabrication start
  • Quality control, inspection and third party inspections
  • Manufacturing Site visit
  • FAT
  • Fabrication completion
  • Shipping Date
  • SAT
Above all the procurement process time line set by the procurement department should also be known. Normally for a mega project to issue a PO might take six (6) months.
Gleeym offers Quantitative schedule & cost risk analysis using Monte Carlo Simulation.
Fig 1 - A Cumulative Distribution Graph for a Finish Date

A Table -1 is showing percentile, cost and contingency reserved required for making risk-based decision regarding schedule. It’s the management choice to choose P50 or P80 for a cost contingency reserves. 

Table 1 for Schedule contingency reserve
Table 1- Schedule Contingency Reserve
Fig 2- A Cumulative Distribution Graph for a Cost

A Table -2 is showing percentile, cost and contingency reserved required for making risk-based decision regarding cost. It’s the management choice to choose P50 or P80 for a cost contingency reserves.

Cost Contingency Reserve
Table 2 - Cost Contingency Reserve

Conclusion

It’s the management choice to choose P50 or P80 for a contingency reserve. The Organization usually prefers P80. Determine the contingency reverse is the one (1) biggest reason!

During a project start the level of information is low and risk is high. Therefore, it is recommended to run the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) at the beginning of project phase or before gate approval of a previous phase. It will support management to make a decision under uncertainty. A monte Carlo simulation is a requirement for making risk-based decision. It’s not optional!

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]]> https://www.gleeym.com/2021/01/31/llirisk/feed/ 0 2154 You Will Never Thought That Knowing Strategic Planning With Mind Maps Could Be So Beneficial! https://www.gleeym.com/2020/12/28/strategicplanning/ https://www.gleeym.com/2020/12/28/strategicplanning/#respond Tue, 29 Dec 2020 01:43:23 +0000 https://www.gleeym.com/?p=2009

Keywords

Planning, Strategic Planning, Strategic Goals, Scheduling, Mind Mapping, Mind Maps, Direction, Leadership, Business, Growth, KPI

You Will Never Thought That Knowing Strategic Planning with Mind Maps Could Be So Beneficial!

Introduction

Strategic planning is an important part of business operation. It can help you to determine your objectives and plan how to achieve them. When a business owner is not clearly communicating their purpose, they can lose business to a competitor who has a better understanding of what they want to accomplish.

When it comes to developing and implementing strategic plans, it’s important to make sure you are following the right formula. It doesn’t matter what size of business you are in, there will always be a need for a strategic plan. An effective strategic plan will help your business grow and flourish.

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Pic-1 Planning

What is strategic planning?

It is the process of identifying and aligning your goals with your company’s vision, mission, and core values. Strategic planning allows an organization to identify strengths, weaknesses and opportunities that can be leveraged to improve organizational results. It also identifies the key areas in which resources should be allocated.

No matter how much you think you know about marketing or sales, one thing’s for sure: there are more things that should be on your business’s list than those that are. which includes a step-by-step approach to developing a strategic plan for your company.

A Strategic planning is a critique of the business and its goals, using data to identify opportunities and weaknesses. The implementation of strategic plans should be a regular part of business management.

Pic-2 Strategic Planning

Mind Mapping

Mind Mapping is a great tool to use in order to implement strategic goals. But, I think many people view these mind maps as merely a tool, and not something that can be used strategically. In this article I want to show you how you can use mind mapping strategically to achieve greater success with your business or website. Mind maps are a diagrammatic method of visual thinking that is used to create concepts, ideas, or relationships. They are created using eight different symbols that represent basic elements of human thinking.

If you’re new to strategic planning and goal setting, consider utilizing a mind map as your vehicle for developing your strategic goals. Mind maps are an effective way of organizing your thoughts so they can be easily communicated to others.

GleeYM offers strategic planning with Mind Maps.
Pic-3 Strategic Planning with Mind Maps

Mind maps are used by some companies to implement strategic goals, but they may not be as effective as other planning and decision making tools. If you’re still in the process of figuring out how to use a strategic mind map, use this blog post to discover whether or not they are the right tool for your business.

Mind maps are a very useful tool in strategic planning, not only because they help to clarify the key points of your message and the objectives you want to achieve with it, but also because they provide a visual representation of your thoughts and ideas.

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  • QRA

    A schedule risk analysis (SRA) uses a risk-based project schedule (derived from the master schedule) to apply statistical techniques to envisage a level of confidence in meeting a project’s completion date.

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Mind Maps for Business Profitability

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